Wind Turbine Payback in Bailey County, TX
Wind turbine payback in Bailey County
No. The turbine wears out before it pays for itself.
At 30 m, the height a home turbine tower usually reaches, the wind in Bailey County, TX averages 6.28 m/s (14 mph). A 10 kW turbine there would make about 21,781 kWh a year, worth $3,491 at TX's 16.03¢/kWh. Against an installed cost of about $100,000, that is a payback of 29 years, and the turbine is built to last about 20.
What to do in Bailey County
A home turbine is not worth buying for savings in Bailey County unless your spot is far windier than the county average, 7.6 m/s at the hub against 6.28 m/s here. Per kW, solar panels would make about 1,594 kWh a year here against the turbine's 2,178, so get a solar quote first.
What would have to change
- Power would have to cost 23¢/kWh, 1.4 times what TX pays now.
- Or the average wind at the hub would have to be 7.6 m/s instead of 6.28. A taller tower or an exposed ridge can add some of that; a rooftop never will.
Against the rest of TX
Bailey County is the 498th windiest of 3,144 US counties at turbine height; the national middle is 4.79 m/s. The windiest in TX is Dallam County at 6.82 m/s, payback 24 years.
Month by month in Bailey County
April is the strongest month here, at 7.25 m/s and about 2,369 kWh. August is the weakest, 5.15 m/s and 1,149 kWh, so the best month makes 2.1 times the worst. November to March brings in 46% of the year's output in Bailey County.
| Month | Wind at 30 m | Output | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 6.46 m/s | 1,963 kWh | $315 |
| February | 6.72 m/s | 1,919 kWh | $308 |
| March | 6.83 m/s | 2,195 kWh | $352 |
| April | 7.25 m/s | 2,369 kWh | $380 |
| May | 6.53 m/s | 2,008 kWh | $322 |
| June | 6.25 m/s | 1,770 kWh | $284 |
| July | 5.39 m/s | 1,298 kWh | $208 |
| August | 5.15 m/s | 1,149 kWh | $184 |
| September | 5.61 m/s | 1,382 kWh | $222 |
| October | 6.17 m/s | 1,779 kWh | $285 |
| November | 6.46 m/s | 1,900 kWh | $305 |
| December | 6.51 m/s | 1,997 kWh | $320 |
What a taller tower would buy
Measured at 10 m the wind in Bailey County averages 4.87 m/s; at 50 m it is 7.06 m/s. That gives a shear exponent of 0.231, typical of ordinary open country. Going from 20 m to 50 m takes output from 17,589 to 27,471 kWh a year, 56% more, before counting the extra cost of the taller tower. Why tower height decides it explains the shear behind these numbers.
| Hub height | Average wind | Output | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 m | 5.71 m/s | 17,589 kWh | 36 years |
| 30 m | 6.27 m/s | 21,738 kWh | 29 years |
| 40 m | 6.71 m/s | 24,913 kWh | 25 years |
| 50 m | 7.06 m/s | 27,471 kWh | 23 years |
Counties around Bailey County
2 of the 6 closest counties are windier at turbine height; the windiest, Curry County, averages 6.41 m/s.
- Lamb County, TX: 6.22 m/s, 21,336 kWh, payback 29 years (28 mi)
- Cochran County, TX: 6.28 m/s, 21,781 kWh, payback 29 years (32 mi)
- Parmer County, TX: 6.39 m/s, 22,595 kWh, payback 28 years (32 mi)
- Roosevelt County, NM: 6.01 m/s, 19,778 kWh, payback 33 years (38 mi)
- Hockley County, TX: 6.2 m/s, 21,187 kWh, payback 29 years (42 mi)
- Curry County, NM: 6.41 m/s, 22,743 kWh, payback 29 years (46 mi)
Sun versus wind in Bailey County
Bailey County gets 5.46 kWh of sunshine per square metre a day on average. One kW of solar panels here would make roughly 1,594 kWh a year; one kW of the turbine above makes 2,178. This is one of the rare places where a kilowatt of turbine out-produces a kilowatt of panels, by 1.4 times. Panel output assumes an 80% system performance ratio. Wind or solar runs the same comparison for every county.
How this is worked out
Wind is NASA's Power climate record, the 2001-2025 average at 10 m and 50 m for the county's centre, carried to 30 m with this county's own measured wind shear and spread into hours with a Rayleigh distribution. The turbine is a generic 10 kW, 7 m rotor machine with 10% losses. Cost is $10,000 per kW installed with no tax credit, because the federal one ended in 2025. One county-centre number cannot see your hilltop or your tree line, so treat it as the starting point for a site survey, not a substitute. The full method and its weak spots are in how the numbers are made.