Wind Turbine Payback in Bristol Bay Borough, AK
Wind turbine payback in Bristol Bay Borough
Only just. The money comes back late in the turbine's life.
At 30 m, the height a home turbine tower usually reaches, the wind in Bristol Bay Borough, AK averages 6.2 m/s (13.9 mph). A 10 kW turbine there would make about 21,187 kWh a year, worth $5,788 at AK's 27.32¢/kWh. Against an installed cost of about $100,000, that is a payback of 17 years, and the turbine is built to last about 20.
What to do in Bristol Bay Borough
It is close enough that your own site decides it. If you have open land with no trees or buildings upwind, ask an installer to log the wind at 30 m or higher; anything above 5.8 m/s pays back in time. Per kW, solar panels would make about 750 kWh a year here against the turbine's 2,119, so get a solar quote first.
What would have to change
- Power already costs enough here: break-even is 24¢/kWh and AK pays 27.32¢.
- The wind clears the break-even speed of 5.8 m/s at today's price.
Against the rest of AK
Bristol Bay Borough is the 588th windiest of 3,144 US counties at turbine height; the national middle is 4.79 m/s. The windiest in AK is Aleutians West Census Area at 9.35 m/s, payback 9 years.
Month by month in Bristol Bay Borough
December is the strongest month here, at 7.23 m/s and about 2,434 kWh. June is the weakest, 4.66 m/s and 847 kWh, so the best month makes 2.9 times the worst. November to March brings in 53% of the year's output in Bristol Bay Borough.
| Month | Wind at 30 m | Output | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 7.17 m/s | 2,401 kWh | $656 |
| February | 7.23 m/s | 2,198 kWh | $600 |
| March | 6.50 m/s | 1,989 kWh | $543 |
| April | 6.16 m/s | 1,715 kWh | $469 |
| May | 5.32 m/s | 1,253 kWh | $342 |
| June | 4.66 m/s | 847 kWh | $231 |
| July | 4.99 m/s | 1,061 kWh | $290 |
| August | 5.32 m/s | 1,253 kWh | $342 |
| September | 6.22 m/s | 1,753 kWh | $479 |
| October | 6.67 m/s | 2,096 kWh | $573 |
| November | 7.05 m/s | 2,255 kWh | $616 |
| December | 7.23 m/s | 2,434 kWh | $665 |
What a taller tower would buy
Measured at 10 m the wind in Bristol Bay Borough averages 5.04 m/s; at 50 m it is 6.83 m/s. That gives a shear exponent of 0.189, typical of ordinary open country. Going from 20 m to 50 m takes output from 17,814 to 25,819 kWh a year, 45% more, before counting the extra cost of the taller tower. Why tower height decides it explains the shear behind these numbers.
| Hub height | Average wind | Output | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 m | 5.74 m/s | 17,814 kWh | 21 years |
| 30 m | 6.2 m/s | 21,198 kWh | 17 years |
| 40 m | 6.55 m/s | 23,760 kWh | 15 years |
| 50 m | 6.83 m/s | 25,819 kWh | 14 years |
Counties around Bristol Bay Borough
2 of the 6 closest counties are windier at turbine height; the windiest, Aleutians East Borough, averages 7.73 m/s.
- Lake and Peninsula Borough, AK: 6.45 m/s, 23,038 kWh, payback 16 years (48 mi)
- Dillingham Census Area, AK: 6.07 m/s, 20,223 kWh, payback 18 years (72 mi)
- Kodiak Island Borough, AK: 5.87 m/s, 18,742 kWh, payback 20 years (132 mi)
- Bethel Census Area, AK: 5.27 m/s, 14,397 kWh, payback 25 years (187 mi)
- Kenai Peninsula Borough, AK: 3.87 m/s, 5,942 kWh, payback 62 years (199 mi)
- Aleutians East Borough, AK: 7.73 m/s, 32,079 kWh, payback 11 years (306 mi)
Sun versus wind in Bristol Bay Borough
Bristol Bay Borough gets 2.57 kWh of sunshine per square metre a day on average. One kW of solar panels here would make roughly 750 kWh a year; one kW of the turbine above makes 2,119. This is one of the rare places where a kilowatt of turbine out-produces a kilowatt of panels, by 2.8 times. Panel output assumes an 80% system performance ratio. Wind or solar runs the same comparison for every county.
How this is worked out
Wind is NASA's Power climate record, the 2001-2025 average at 10 m and 50 m for the county's centre, carried to 30 m with this county's own measured wind shear and spread into hours with a Rayleigh distribution. The turbine is a generic 10 kW, 7 m rotor machine with 10% losses. Cost is $10,000 per kW installed with no tax credit, because the federal one ended in 2025. One county-centre number cannot see your hilltop or your tree line, so treat it as the starting point for a site survey, not a substitute. The full method and its weak spots are in how the numbers are made.