Wind Turbine Payback in Dawson County, NE
Wind turbine payback in Dawson County
No. The turbine wears out before it pays for itself.
At 30 m, the height a home turbine tower usually reaches, the wind in Dawson County, NE averages 6.57 m/s (14.7 mph). A 10 kW turbine there would make about 23,922 kWh a year, worth $3,091 at NE's 12.92¢/kWh. Against an installed cost of about $100,000, that is a payback of 32 years, and the turbine is built to last about 20.
What to do in Dawson County
A home turbine is not worth buying for savings in Dawson County unless your spot is far windier than the county average, 8.8 m/s at the hub against 6.57 m/s here. Per kW, solar panels would make about 1,323 kWh a year here against the turbine's 2,392, so get a solar quote first.
What would have to change
- Power would have to cost 21¢/kWh, 1.6 times what NE pays now.
- Or the average wind at the hub would have to be 8.8 m/s instead of 6.57. A taller tower or an exposed ridge can add some of that; a rooftop never will.
Against the rest of NE
Dawson County is the 130th windiest of 3,144 US counties at turbine height; the national middle is 4.79 m/s. The windiest in NE is Cherry County at 6.83 m/s, payback 30 years.
Month by month in Dawson County
April is the strongest month here, at 7.33 m/s and about 2,414 kWh. August is the weakest, 5.57 m/s and 1,403 kWh, so the best month makes 1.7 times the worst. November to March brings in 45% of the year's output in Dawson County.
| Month | Wind at 30 m | Output | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 6.81 m/s | 2,182 kWh | $282 |
| February | 6.80 m/s | 1,965 kWh | $254 |
| March | 7.00 m/s | 2,296 kWh | $297 |
| April | 7.33 m/s | 2,414 kWh | $312 |
| May | 6.64 m/s | 2,076 kWh | $268 |
| June | 6.19 m/s | 1,738 kWh | $225 |
| July | 5.57 m/s | 1,403 kWh | $181 |
| August | 5.57 m/s | 1,403 kWh | $181 |
| September | 6.52 m/s | 1,934 kWh | $250 |
| October | 6.87 m/s | 2,215 kWh | $286 |
| November | 6.84 m/s | 2,127 kWh | $275 |
| December | 6.76 m/s | 2,148 kWh | $278 |
What a taller tower would buy
Measured at 10 m the wind in Dawson County averages 5.18 m/s; at 50 m it is 7.34 m/s. That gives a shear exponent of 0.217, typical of ordinary open country. Going from 20 m to 50 m takes output from 19,826 to 29,437 kWh a year, 48% more, before counting the extra cost of the taller tower. Why tower height decides it explains the shear behind these numbers.
| Hub height | Average wind | Output | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 m | 6.02 m/s | 19,826 kWh | 39 years |
| 30 m | 6.57 m/s | 23,921 kWh | 32 years |
| 40 m | 6.99 m/s | 26,993 kWh | 29 years |
| 50 m | 7.34 m/s | 29,437 kWh | 26 years |
Counties around Dawson County
1 of the 6 closest counties is windier at turbine height; the windiest, Custer County, averages 6.68 m/s.
- Gosper County, NE: 6.37 m/s, 22,447 kWh, payback 35 years (25 mi)
- Phelps County, NE: 6.49 m/s, 23,333 kWh, payback 33 years (32 mi)
- Custer County, NE: 6.68 m/s, 24,728 kWh, payback 31 years (37 mi)
- Buffalo County, NE: 6.56 m/s, 23,849 kWh, payback 33 years (39 mi)
- Frontier County, NE: 6.31 m/s, 22,003 kWh, payback 35 years (39 mi)
- Furnas County, NE: 6.31 m/s, 22,003 kWh, payback 35 years (47 mi)
Sun versus wind in Dawson County
Dawson County gets 4.53 kWh of sunshine per square metre a day on average. One kW of solar panels here would make roughly 1,323 kWh a year; one kW of the turbine above makes 2,392. This is one of the rare places where a kilowatt of turbine out-produces a kilowatt of panels, by 1.8 times. Panel output assumes an 80% system performance ratio. Wind or solar runs the same comparison for every county.
How this is worked out
Wind is NASA's Power climate record, the 2001-2025 average at 10 m and 50 m for the county's centre, carried to 30 m with this county's own measured wind shear and spread into hours with a Rayleigh distribution. The turbine is a generic 10 kW, 7 m rotor machine with 10% losses. Cost is $10,000 per kW installed with no tax credit, because the federal one ended in 2025. One county-centre number cannot see your hilltop or your tree line, so treat it as the starting point for a site survey, not a substitute. The full method and its weak spots are in how the numbers are made.