Wind Turbine Payback in Douglas County, OR
Wind turbine payback in Douglas County
No. The turbine wears out before it pays for itself.
At 30 m, the height a home turbine tower usually reaches, the wind in Douglas County, OR averages 2.81 m/s (6.3 mph). A 10 kW turbine there would make about 2,073 kWh a year, worth $320 at OR's 15.46¢/kWh. Against an installed cost of about $100,000, that is a payback of over 100 years, and the turbine is built to last about 20.
What to do in Douglas County
A home turbine is not worth buying for savings in Douglas County unless your spot is far windier than the county average, 7.8 m/s at the hub against 2.81 m/s here. Per kW, solar panels would make about 1,183 kWh a year here against the turbine's 207, so get a solar quote first.
What would have to change
- Power would have to cost 241¢/kWh, 15.6 times what OR pays now.
- Or the average wind at the hub would have to be 7.8 m/s instead of 2.81. A taller tower or an exposed ridge can add some of that; a rooftop never will.
Against the rest of OR
Douglas County is the 3,122nd windiest of 3,144 US counties at turbine height; the national middle is 4.79 m/s. The windiest in OR is Gilliam County at 5.48 m/s, payback 41 years.
Month by month in Douglas County
December is the strongest month here, at 3.47 m/s and about 359 kWh. August is the weakest, 2.39 m/s and 96 kWh, so the best month makes 3.7 times the worst. November to March brings in 63% of the year's output in Douglas County.
| Month | Wind at 30 m | Output | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 3.37 m/s | 325 kWh | $50 |
| February | 3.01 m/s | 202 kWh | $31 |
| March | 2.99 m/s | 219 kWh | $34 |
| April | 2.67 m/s | 141 kWh | $22 |
| May | 2.40 m/s | 98 kWh | $15 |
| June | 2.41 m/s | 96 kWh | $15 |
| July | 2.39 m/s | 96 kWh | $15 |
| August | 2.39 m/s | 96 kWh | $15 |
| September | 2.53 m/s | 116 kWh | $18 |
| October | 2.83 m/s | 181 kWh | $28 |
| November | 3.23 m/s | 274 kWh | $42 |
| December | 3.47 m/s | 359 kWh | $56 |
What a taller tower would buy
Measured at 10 m the wind in Douglas County averages 1.81 m/s; at 50 m it is 3.44 m/s. That gives a shear exponent of 0.399, typical of rough, sheltered ground: trees or buildings slow the low wind a lot. Going from 20 m to 50 m takes output from 1,128 to 4,094 kWh a year, 263% more, before counting the extra cost of the taller tower. Why tower height decides it explains the shear behind these numbers.
| Hub height | Average wind | Output | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 m | 2.39 m/s | 1,128 kWh | over 100 years |
| 30 m | 2.81 m/s | 2,062 kWh | over 100 years |
| 40 m | 3.15 m/s | 3,057 kWh | over 100 years |
| 50 m | 3.44 m/s | 4,094 kWh | over 100 years |
Counties around Douglas County
5 of the 6 closest counties are windier at turbine height; the windiest, Curry County, averages 4.71 m/s.
- Lane County, OR: 2.72 m/s, 1,846 kWh, payback over 100 years (46 mi)
- Coos County, OR: 4.33 m/s, 8,346 kWh, payback 78 years (48 mi)
- Jackson County, OR: 2.98 m/s, 2,542 kWh, payback over 100 years (65 mi)
- Josephine County, OR: 2.84 m/s, 2,152 kWh, payback over 100 years (66 mi)
- Curry County, OR: 4.71 m/s, 10,635 kWh, payback 61 years (78 mi)
- Benton County, OR: 3.42 m/s, 4,018 kWh, payback over 100 years (85 mi)
Sun versus wind in Douglas County
Douglas County gets 4.05 kWh of sunshine per square metre a day on average. One kW of solar panels here would make roughly 1,183 kWh a year; one kW of the turbine above makes 207. Kilowatt for kilowatt, panels make 5.7 times as much here as the turbine. Panel output assumes an 80% system performance ratio. Wind or solar runs the same comparison for every county.
How this is worked out
Wind is NASA's Power climate record, the 2001-2025 average at 10 m and 50 m for the county's centre, carried to 30 m with this county's own measured wind shear and spread into hours with a Rayleigh distribution. The turbine is a generic 10 kW, 7 m rotor machine with 10% losses. Cost is $10,000 per kW installed with no tax credit, because the federal one ended in 2025. One county-centre number cannot see your hilltop or your tree line, so treat it as the starting point for a site survey, not a substitute. The full method and its weak spots are in how the numbers are made.