Wind Turbine Payback in Erie County, NY
Wind turbine payback in Erie County
No. The turbine wears out before it pays for itself.
At 30 m, the height a home turbine tower usually reaches, the wind in Erie County, NY averages 5.02 m/s (11.2 mph). A 10 kW turbine there would make about 12,670 kWh a year, worth $3,707 at NY's 29.26¢/kWh. Against an installed cost of about $100,000, that is a payback of 27 years, and the turbine is built to last about 20.
What to do in Erie County
A home turbine is not worth buying for savings in Erie County unless your spot is far windier than the county average, 5.6 m/s at the hub against 5.02 m/s here. Per kW, solar panels would make about 1,048 kWh a year here against the turbine's 1,267, so get a solar quote first.
What would have to change
- Power would have to cost 39¢/kWh, 1.3 times what NY pays now.
- Or the average wind at the hub would have to be 5.6 m/s instead of 5.02. A taller tower or an exposed ridge can add some of that; a rooftop never will.
Against the rest of NY
Erie County is the 1,446th windiest of 3,144 US counties at turbine height; the national middle is 4.79 m/s. The windiest in NY is Niagara County at 6.87 m/s, payback 13 years.
Month by month in Erie County
January is the strongest month here, at 6.45 m/s and about 1,956 kWh. August is the weakest, 3.87 m/s and 506 kWh, so the best month makes 3.9 times the worst. November to March brings in 61% of the year's output in Erie County.
| Month | Wind at 30 m | Output | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 6.45 m/s | 1,956 kWh | $572 |
| February | 6.30 m/s | 1,684 kWh | $493 |
| March | 5.55 m/s | 1,393 kWh | $408 |
| April | 5.16 m/s | 1,121 kWh | $328 |
| May | 4.31 m/s | 701 kWh | $205 |
| June | 4.11 m/s | 586 kWh | $171 |
| July | 3.97 m/s | 545 kWh | $159 |
| August | 3.87 m/s | 506 kWh | $148 |
| September | 4.18 m/s | 616 kWh | $180 |
| October | 5.01 m/s | 1,073 kWh | $314 |
| November | 5.47 m/s | 1,302 kWh | $381 |
| December | 5.93 m/s | 1,630 kWh | $477 |
What a taller tower would buy
Measured at 10 m the wind in Erie County averages 3.67 m/s; at 50 m it is 5.81 m/s. That gives a shear exponent of 0.285, typical of ordinary open country. Going from 20 m to 50 m takes output from 9,188 to 18,300 kWh a year, 99% more, before counting the extra cost of the taller tower. Why tower height decides it explains the shear behind these numbers.
| Hub height | Average wind | Output | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 m | 4.47 m/s | 9,188 kWh | 37 years |
| 30 m | 5.02 m/s | 12,689 kWh | 27 years |
| 40 m | 5.45 m/s | 15,691 kWh | 22 years |
| 50 m | 5.81 m/s | 18,300 kWh | 19 years |
Counties around Erie County
3 of the 6 closest counties are windier at turbine height; the windiest, Niagara County, averages 6.87 m/s.
- Wyoming County, NY: 4.03 m/s, 6,729 kWh, payback 51 years (28 mi)
- Genesee County, NY: 4.08 m/s, 6,986 kWh, payback 49 years (34 mi)
- Niagara County, NY: 6.87 m/s, 26,109 kWh, payback 13 years (36 mi)
- Cattaraugus County, NY: 3.89 m/s, 6,037 kWh, payback 57 years (36 mi)
- Chautauqua County, NY: 5.37 m/s, 15,105 kWh, payback 23 years (45 mi)
- Orleans County, NY: 6.86 m/s, 26,036 kWh, payback 13 years (50 mi)
Sun versus wind in Erie County
Erie County gets 3.59 kWh of sunshine per square metre a day on average. One kW of solar panels here would make roughly 1,048 kWh a year; one kW of the turbine above makes 1,267. This is one of the rare places where a kilowatt of turbine out-produces a kilowatt of panels, by 1.2 times. Panel output assumes an 80% system performance ratio. Wind or solar runs the same comparison for every county.
How this is worked out
Wind is NASA's Power climate record, the 2001-2025 average at 10 m and 50 m for the county's centre, carried to 30 m with this county's own measured wind shear and spread into hours with a Rayleigh distribution. The turbine is a generic 10 kW, 7 m rotor machine with 10% losses. Cost is $10,000 per kW installed with no tax credit, because the federal one ended in 2025. One county-centre number cannot see your hilltop or your tree line, so treat it as the starting point for a site survey, not a substitute. The full method and its weak spots are in how the numbers are made.