Wind Turbine Payback in Erie County, PA
Wind turbine payback in Erie County
No. The turbine wears out before it pays for itself.
At 30 m, the height a home turbine tower usually reaches, the wind in Erie County, PA averages 4.64 m/s (10.4 mph). A 10 kW turbine there would make about 10,195 kWh a year, worth $2,154 at PA's 21.13¢/kWh. Against an installed cost of about $100,000, that is a payback of 46 years, and the turbine is built to last about 20.
What to do in Erie County
A home turbine is not worth buying for savings in Erie County unless your spot is far windier than the county average, 6.5 m/s at the hub against 4.64 m/s here. Per kW, solar panels would make about 1,092 kWh a year here against the turbine's 1,020, so get a solar quote first.
What would have to change
- Power would have to cost 49¢/kWh, 2.3 times what PA pays now.
- Or the average wind at the hub would have to be 6.5 m/s instead of 4.64. A taller tower or an exposed ridge can add some of that; a rooftop never will.
Against the rest of PA
Erie County is the 1,667th windiest of 3,144 US counties at turbine height; the national middle is 4.79 m/s. The windiest in PA is Philadelphia County at 4.74 m/s, payback 44 years.
Month by month in Erie County
January is the strongest month here, at 6.02 m/s and about 1,687 kWh. July is the weakest, 3.42 m/s and 342 kWh, so the best month makes 4.9 times the worst. November to March brings in 63% of the year's output in Erie County.
| Month | Wind at 30 m | Output | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 6.02 m/s | 1,687 kWh | $356 |
| February | 5.77 m/s | 1,381 kWh | $292 |
| March | 5.21 m/s | 1,185 kWh | $250 |
| April | 4.89 m/s | 972 kWh | $205 |
| May | 4.02 m/s | 567 kWh | $120 |
| June | 3.68 m/s | 418 kWh | $88 |
| July | 3.42 m/s | 342 kWh | $72 |
| August | 3.43 m/s | 345 kWh | $73 |
| September | 3.85 m/s | 483 kWh | $102 |
| October | 4.69 m/s | 891 kWh | $188 |
| November | 5.19 m/s | 1,137 kWh | $240 |
| December | 5.62 m/s | 1,437 kWh | $304 |
What a taller tower would buy
Measured at 10 m the wind in Erie County averages 3.41 m/s; at 50 m it is 5.36 m/s. That gives a shear exponent of 0.281, typical of ordinary open country. Going from 20 m to 50 m takes output from 7,318 to 15,034 kWh a year, 105% more, before counting the extra cost of the taller tower. Why tower height decides it explains the shear behind these numbers.
| Hub height | Average wind | Output | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 m | 4.14 m/s | 7,318 kWh | 65 years |
| 30 m | 4.64 m/s | 10,215 kWh | 46 years |
| 40 m | 5.03 m/s | 12,766 kWh | 37 years |
| 50 m | 5.36 m/s | 15,034 kWh | 32 years |
Counties around Erie County
2 of the 6 closest counties are windier at turbine height; the windiest, Chautauqua County, averages 5.37 m/s.
- Crawford County, PA: 3.66 m/s, 4,991 kWh, payback 95 years (30 mi)
- Ashtabula County, OH: 5.25 m/s, 14,256 kWh, payback 37 years (36 mi)
- Chautauqua County, NY: 5.37 m/s, 15,105 kWh, payback 23 years (38 mi)
- Warren County, PA: 4.07 m/s, 6,934 kWh, payback 68 years (45 mi)
- Venango County, PA: 3.66 m/s, 4,991 kWh, payback 95 years (52 mi)
- Mercer County, PA: 3.66 m/s, 4,991 kWh, payback 95 years (57 mi)
Sun versus wind in Erie County
Erie County gets 3.74 kWh of sunshine per square metre a day on average. One kW of solar panels here would make roughly 1,092 kWh a year; one kW of the turbine above makes 1,020. Kilowatt for kilowatt, panels make 1.1 times as much here as the turbine. Panel output assumes an 80% system performance ratio. Wind or solar runs the same comparison for every county.
How this is worked out
Wind is NASA's Power climate record, the 2001-2025 average at 10 m and 50 m for the county's centre, carried to 30 m with this county's own measured wind shear and spread into hours with a Rayleigh distribution. The turbine is a generic 10 kW, 7 m rotor machine with 10% losses. Cost is $10,000 per kW installed with no tax credit, because the federal one ended in 2025. One county-centre number cannot see your hilltop or your tree line, so treat it as the starting point for a site survey, not a substitute. The full method and its weak spots are in how the numbers are made.