Wind Turbine Payback in Jefferson County, AR
Wind turbine payback in Jefferson County
No. The turbine wears out before it pays for itself.
At 30 m, the height a home turbine tower usually reaches, the wind in Jefferson County, AR averages 4.65 m/s (10.4 mph). A 10 kW turbine there would make about 10,257 kWh a year, worth $1,409 at AR's 13.74¢/kWh. Against an installed cost of about $100,000, that is a payback of 71 years, and the turbine is built to last about 20.
What to do in Jefferson County
A home turbine is not worth buying for savings in Jefferson County unless your spot is far windier than the county average, 8.4 m/s at the hub against 4.65 m/s here. Per kW, solar panels would make about 1,323 kWh a year here against the turbine's 1,026, so get a solar quote first.
What would have to change
- Power would have to cost 49¢/kWh, 3.5 times what AR pays now.
- Or the average wind at the hub would have to be 8.4 m/s instead of 4.65. A taller tower or an exposed ridge can add some of that; a rooftop never will.
Against the rest of AR
Jefferson County is the 1,659th windiest of 3,144 US counties at turbine height; the national middle is 4.79 m/s. The windiest in AR is Mississippi County at 5.35 m/s, payback 49 years.
Month by month in Jefferson County
March is the strongest month here, at 5.41 m/s and about 1,308 kWh. July is the weakest, 3.53 m/s and 379 kWh, so the best month makes 3.5 times the worst. November to March brings in 53% of the year's output in Jefferson County.
| Month | Wind at 30 m | Output | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 5.13 m/s | 1,143 kWh | $157 |
| February | 5.26 m/s | 1,101 kWh | $151 |
| March | 5.41 m/s | 1,308 kWh | $180 |
| April | 5.45 m/s | 1,286 kWh | $177 |
| May | 4.71 m/s | 903 kWh | $124 |
| June | 3.97 m/s | 530 kWh | $73 |
| July | 3.53 m/s | 379 kWh | $52 |
| August | 3.62 m/s | 409 kWh | $56 |
| September | 4.12 m/s | 592 kWh | $81 |
| October | 4.60 m/s | 844 kWh | $116 |
| November | 5.03 m/s | 1,047 kWh | $144 |
| December | 5.00 m/s | 1,067 kWh | $147 |
What a taller tower would buy
Measured at 10 m the wind in Jefferson County averages 3.41 m/s; at 50 m it is 5.37 m/s. That gives a shear exponent of 0.282, typical of ordinary open country. Going from 20 m to 50 m takes output from 7,339 to 15,105 kWh a year, 106% more, before counting the extra cost of the taller tower. Why tower height decides it explains the shear behind these numbers.
| Hub height | Average wind | Output | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 m | 4.15 m/s | 7,339 kWh | 99 years |
| 30 m | 4.65 m/s | 10,254 kWh | 71 years |
| 40 m | 5.04 m/s | 12,822 kWh | 57 years |
| 50 m | 5.37 m/s | 15,105 kWh | 48 years |
Counties around Jefferson County
2 of the 6 closest counties are windier at turbine height; the windiest, Arkansas County, averages 4.94 m/s.
- Lincoln County, AR: 4.04 m/s, 6,780 kWh, payback over 100 years (25 mi)
- Grant County, AR: 3.49 m/s, 4,289 kWh, payback over 100 years (28 mi)
- Cleveland County, AR: 3.14 m/s, 3,034 kWh, payback over 100 years (30 mi)
- Arkansas County, AR: 4.94 m/s, 12,132 kWh, payback 60 years (32 mi)
- Lonoke County, AR: 4.68 m/s, 10,445 kWh, payback 70 years (33 mi)
- Pulaski County, AR: 4.08 m/s, 6,986 kWh, payback over 100 years (40 mi)
Sun versus wind in Jefferson County
Jefferson County gets 4.53 kWh of sunshine per square metre a day on average. One kW of solar panels here would make roughly 1,323 kWh a year; one kW of the turbine above makes 1,026. Kilowatt for kilowatt, panels make 1.3 times as much here as the turbine. Panel output assumes an 80% system performance ratio. Wind or solar runs the same comparison for every county.
How this is worked out
Wind is NASA's Power climate record, the 2001-2025 average at 10 m and 50 m for the county's centre, carried to 30 m with this county's own measured wind shear and spread into hours with a Rayleigh distribution. The turbine is a generic 10 kW, 7 m rotor machine with 10% losses. Cost is $10,000 per kW installed with no tax credit, because the federal one ended in 2025. One county-centre number cannot see your hilltop or your tree line, so treat it as the starting point for a site survey, not a substitute. The full method and its weak spots are in how the numbers are made.