Wind Turbine Payback in San Juan County, NM
Wind turbine payback in San Juan County
No. The turbine wears out before it pays for itself.
At 30 m, the height a home turbine tower usually reaches, the wind in San Juan County, NM averages 4.56 m/s (10.2 mph). A 10 kW turbine there would make about 9,702 kWh a year, worth $1,488 at NM's 15.34¢/kWh. Against an installed cost of about $100,000, that is a payback of 67 years, and the turbine is built to last about 20.
What to do in San Juan County
A home turbine is not worth buying for savings in San Juan County unless your spot is far windier than the county average, 7.8 m/s at the hub against 4.56 m/s here. Per kW, solar panels would make about 1,618 kWh a year here against the turbine's 970, so get a solar quote first.
What would have to change
- Power would have to cost 52¢/kWh, 3.4 times what NM pays now.
- Or the average wind at the hub would have to be 7.8 m/s instead of 4.56. A taller tower or an exposed ridge can add some of that; a rooftop never will.
Against the rest of NM
San Juan County is the 1,711th windiest of 3,144 US counties at turbine height; the national middle is 4.79 m/s. The windiest in NM is Union County at 6.75 m/s, payback 26 years.
Month by month in San Juan County
April is the strongest month here, at 5.68 m/s and about 1,425 kWh. August is the weakest, 3.62 m/s and 410 kWh, so the best month makes 3.5 times the worst. November to March brings in 42% of the year's output in San Juan County.
| Month | Wind at 30 m | Output | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 4.31 m/s | 698 kWh | $107 |
| February | 4.88 m/s | 899 kWh | $138 |
| March | 5.06 m/s | 1,102 kWh | $169 |
| April | 5.68 m/s | 1,425 kWh | $219 |
| May | 5.12 m/s | 1,133 kWh | $174 |
| June | 4.74 m/s | 892 kWh | $137 |
| July | 3.85 m/s | 498 kWh | $76 |
| August | 3.62 m/s | 410 kWh | $63 |
| September | 4.17 m/s | 611 kWh | $94 |
| October | 4.49 m/s | 791 kWh | $121 |
| November | 4.44 m/s | 739 kWh | $113 |
| December | 4.33 m/s | 707 kWh | $108 |
What a taller tower would buy
Measured at 10 m the wind in San Juan County averages 3.55 m/s; at 50 m it is 5.12 m/s. That gives a shear exponent of 0.228, typical of ordinary open country. Going from 20 m to 50 m takes output from 7,379 to 13,353 kWh a year, 81% more, before counting the extra cost of the taller tower. Why tower height decides it explains the shear behind these numbers.
| Hub height | Average wind | Output | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 m | 4.15 m/s | 7,379 kWh | 88 years |
| 30 m | 4.56 m/s | 9,684 kWh | 67 years |
| 40 m | 4.87 m/s | 11,642 kWh | 56 years |
| 50 m | 5.12 m/s | 13,353 kWh | 49 years |
Counties around San Juan County
1 of the 6 closest counties is windier at turbine height; the windiest, McKinley County, averages 5.51 m/s.
- Montezuma County, CO: 4.23 m/s, 7,787 kWh, payback 76 years (59 mi)
- La Plata County, CO: 4.22 m/s, 7,732 kWh, payback 77 years (60 mi)
- McKinley County, NM: 5.51 m/s, 16,109 kWh, payback 41 years (64 mi)
- Dolores County, CO: 4.23 m/s, 7,787 kWh, payback 76 years (85 mi)
- Archuleta County, CO: 3.87 m/s, 5,942 kWh, payback over 100 years (85 mi)
- Rio Arriba County, NM: 4.04 m/s, 6,780 kWh, payback 96 years (91 mi)
Sun versus wind in San Juan County
San Juan County gets 5.54 kWh of sunshine per square metre a day on average. One kW of solar panels here would make roughly 1,618 kWh a year; one kW of the turbine above makes 970. Kilowatt for kilowatt, panels make 1.7 times as much here as the turbine. Panel output assumes an 80% system performance ratio. Wind or solar runs the same comparison for every county.
How this is worked out
Wind is NASA's Power climate record, the 2001-2025 average at 10 m and 50 m for the county's centre, carried to 30 m with this county's own measured wind shear and spread into hours with a Rayleigh distribution. The turbine is a generic 10 kW, 7 m rotor machine with 10% losses. Cost is $10,000 per kW installed with no tax credit, because the federal one ended in 2025. One county-centre number cannot see your hilltop or your tree line, so treat it as the starting point for a site survey, not a substitute. The full method and its weak spots are in how the numbers are made.