Wind Turbine Payback in Fairbanks North Star Borough, AK
Wind turbine payback in Fairbanks North Star Borough
No. The turbine wears out before it pays for itself.
At 30 m, the height a home turbine tower usually reaches, the wind in Fairbanks North Star Borough, AK averages 3.23 m/s (7.2 mph). A 10 kW turbine there would make about 3,333 kWh a year, worth $911 at AK's 27.32¢/kWh. Against an installed cost of about $100,000, that is a payback of over 100 years, and the turbine is built to last about 20.
What to do in Fairbanks North Star Borough
A home turbine is not worth buying for savings in Fairbanks North Star Borough unless your spot is far windier than the county average, 5.8 m/s at the hub against 3.23 m/s here. Per kW, solar panels would make about 748 kWh a year here against the turbine's 333, so get a solar quote first.
What would have to change
- Power would have to cost 150¢/kWh, 5.5 times what AK pays now.
- Or the average wind at the hub would have to be 5.8 m/s instead of 3.23. A taller tower or an exposed ridge can add some of that; a rooftop never will.
Against the rest of AK
Fairbanks North Star Borough is the 2,844th windiest of 3,144 US counties at turbine height; the national middle is 4.79 m/s. The windiest in AK is Aleutians West Census Area at 9.35 m/s, payback 9 years.
Month by month in Fairbanks North Star Borough
January is the strongest month here, at 3.87 m/s and about 505 kWh. June is the weakest, 2.69 m/s and 146 kWh, so the best month makes 3.5 times the worst. November to March brings in 62% of the year's output in Fairbanks North Star Borough.
| Month | Wind at 30 m | Output | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 3.87 m/s | 505 kWh | $138 |
| February | 3.91 m/s | 469 kWh | $128 |
| March | 3.48 m/s | 361 kWh | $99 |
| April | 3.15 m/s | 252 kWh | $69 |
| May | 2.89 m/s | 195 kWh | $53 |
| June | 2.69 m/s | 146 kWh | $40 |
| July | 2.73 m/s | 159 kWh | $43 |
| August | 2.73 m/s | 159 kWh | $43 |
| September | 2.88 m/s | 187 kWh | $51 |
| October | 3.10 m/s | 246 kWh | $67 |
| November | 3.50 m/s | 355 kWh | $97 |
| December | 3.80 m/s | 475 kWh | $130 |
What a taller tower would buy
Measured at 10 m the wind in Fairbanks North Star Borough averages 2.28 m/s; at 50 m it is 3.79 m/s. That gives a shear exponent of 0.316, typical of rough, sheltered ground: trees or buildings slow the low wind a lot. Going from 20 m to 50 m takes output from 2,144 to 5,568 kWh a year, 160% more, before counting the extra cost of the taller tower. Why tower height decides it explains the shear behind these numbers.
| Hub height | Average wind | Output | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 m | 2.84 m/s | 2,144 kWh | over 100 years |
| 30 m | 3.23 m/s | 3,316 kWh | over 100 years |
| 40 m | 3.53 m/s | 4,456 kWh | 82 years |
| 50 m | 3.79 m/s | 5,568 kWh | 66 years |
Counties around Fairbanks North Star Borough
4 of the 6 closest counties are windier at turbine height; the windiest, Yukon-Koyukuk Census Area, averages 5.2 m/s.
- Southeast Fairbanks Census Area, AK: 2.93 m/s, 2,398 kWh, payback over 100 years (113 mi)
- Denali Borough, AK: 4.06 m/s, 6,883 kWh, payback 53 years (126 mi)
- Yukon-Koyukuk Census Area, AK: 5.2 m/s, 13,907 kWh, payback 26 years (156 mi)
- Matanuska-Susitna Borough, AK: 4.5 m/s, 9,339 kWh, payback 39 years (190 mi)
- Copper River Census Area, AK: 2.86 m/s, 2,205 kWh, payback over 100 years (199 mi)
- Anchorage Municipality, AK: 3.5 m/s, 4,329 kWh, payback 85 years (257 mi)
Sun versus wind in Fairbanks North Star Borough
Fairbanks North Star Borough gets 2.56 kWh of sunshine per square metre a day on average. One kW of solar panels here would make roughly 748 kWh a year; one kW of the turbine above makes 333. Kilowatt for kilowatt, panels make 2.2 times as much here as the turbine. Panel output assumes an 80% system performance ratio. Wind or solar runs the same comparison for every county.
How this is worked out
Wind is NASA's Power climate record, the 2001-2025 average at 10 m and 50 m for the county's centre, carried to 30 m with this county's own measured wind shear and spread into hours with a Rayleigh distribution. The turbine is a generic 10 kW, 7 m rotor machine with 10% losses. Cost is $10,000 per kW installed with no tax credit, because the federal one ended in 2025. One county-centre number cannot see your hilltop or your tree line, so treat it as the starting point for a site survey, not a substitute. The full method and its weak spots are in how the numbers are made.