Wind Turbine Payback in Southeast Fairbanks Census Area, AK
Wind turbine payback in Southeast Fairbanks Census Area
No. The turbine wears out before it pays for itself.
At 30 m, the height a home turbine tower usually reaches, the wind in Southeast Fairbanks Census Area, AK averages 2.93 m/s (6.6 mph). A 10 kW turbine there would make about 2,398 kWh a year, worth $655 at AK's 27.32¢/kWh. Against an installed cost of about $100,000, that is a payback of over 100 years, and the turbine is built to last about 20.
What to do in Southeast Fairbanks Census Area
A home turbine is not worth buying for savings in Southeast Fairbanks Census Area unless your spot is far windier than the county average, 5.8 m/s at the hub against 2.93 m/s here. Per kW, solar panels would make about 765 kWh a year here against the turbine's 240, so get a solar quote first.
What would have to change
- Power would have to cost 209¢/kWh, 7.6 times what AK pays now.
- Or the average wind at the hub would have to be 5.8 m/s instead of 2.93. A taller tower or an exposed ridge can add some of that; a rooftop never will.
Against the rest of AK
Southeast Fairbanks Census Area is the 3,098th windiest of 3,144 US counties at turbine height; the national middle is 4.79 m/s. The windiest in AK is Aleutians West Census Area at 9.35 m/s, payback 9 years.
Month by month in Southeast Fairbanks Census Area
January is the strongest month here, at 3.43 m/s and about 346 kWh. June is the weakest, 2.52 m/s and 115 kWh, so the best month makes 3.0 times the worst. November to March brings in 58% of the year's output in Southeast Fairbanks Census Area.
| Month | Wind at 30 m | Output | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 3.43 m/s | 346 kWh | $95 |
| February | 3.32 m/s | 281 kWh | $77 |
| March | 3.24 m/s | 286 kWh | $78 |
| April | 2.93 m/s | 196 kWh | $54 |
| May | 2.74 m/s | 161 kWh | $44 |
| June | 2.52 m/s | 115 kWh | $31 |
| July | 2.52 m/s | 119 kWh | $33 |
| August | 2.53 m/s | 120 kWh | $33 |
| September | 2.69 m/s | 146 kWh | $40 |
| October | 2.82 m/s | 178 kWh | $49 |
| November | 3.05 m/s | 227 kWh | $62 |
| December | 3.32 m/s | 311 kWh | $85 |
What a taller tower would buy
Measured at 10 m the wind in Southeast Fairbanks Census Area averages 2.03 m/s; at 50 m it is 3.47 m/s. That gives a shear exponent of 0.333, typical of rough, sheltered ground: trees or buildings slow the low wind a lot. Going from 20 m to 50 m takes output from 1,472 to 4,211 kWh a year, 186% more, before counting the extra cost of the taller tower. Why tower height decides it explains the shear behind these numbers.
| Hub height | Average wind | Output | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 m | 2.56 m/s | 1,472 kWh | over 100 years |
| 30 m | 2.93 m/s | 2,391 kWh | over 100 years |
| 40 m | 3.22 m/s | 3,304 kWh | over 100 years |
| 50 m | 3.47 m/s | 4,211 kWh | 87 years |
Counties around Southeast Fairbanks Census Area
5 of the 6 closest counties are windier at turbine height; the windiest, Chugach Census Area, averages 6.07 m/s.
- Fairbanks North Star Borough, AK: 3.23 m/s, 3,333 kWh, payback over 100 years (113 mi)
- Copper River Census Area, AK: 2.86 m/s, 2,205 kWh, payback over 100 years (128 mi)
- Denali Borough, AK: 4.06 m/s, 6,883 kWh, payback 53 years (208 mi)
- Matanuska-Susitna Borough, AK: 4.5 m/s, 9,339 kWh, payback 39 years (225 mi)
- Chugach Census Area, AK: 6.07 m/s, 20,223 kWh, payback 18 years (252 mi)
- Anchorage Municipality, AK: 3.5 m/s, 4,329 kWh, payback 85 years (268 mi)
Sun versus wind in Southeast Fairbanks Census Area
Southeast Fairbanks Census Area gets 2.62 kWh of sunshine per square metre a day on average. One kW of solar panels here would make roughly 765 kWh a year; one kW of the turbine above makes 240. Kilowatt for kilowatt, panels make 3.2 times as much here as the turbine. Panel output assumes an 80% system performance ratio. Wind or solar runs the same comparison for every county.
How this is worked out
Wind is NASA's Power climate record, the 2001-2025 average at 10 m and 50 m for the county's centre, carried to 30 m with this county's own measured wind shear and spread into hours with a Rayleigh distribution. The turbine is a generic 10 kW, 7 m rotor machine with 10% losses. Cost is $10,000 per kW installed with no tax credit, because the federal one ended in 2025. One county-centre number cannot see your hilltop or your tree line, so treat it as the starting point for a site survey, not a substitute. The full method and its weak spots are in how the numbers are made.