Wind Turbine Payback in Merced County, CA
Wind turbine payback in Merced County
No. The turbine wears out before it pays for itself.
At 30 m, the height a home turbine tower usually reaches, the wind in Merced County, CA averages 4.5 m/s (10.1 mph). A 10 kW turbine there would make about 9,339 kWh a year, worth $3,043 at CA's 32.58¢/kWh. Against an installed cost of about $100,000, that is a payback of 33 years, and the turbine is built to last about 20.
What to do in Merced County
A home turbine is not worth buying for savings in Merced County unless your spot is far windier than the county average, 5.4 m/s at the hub against 4.5 m/s here. Per kW, solar panels would make about 1,562 kWh a year here against the turbine's 934, so get a solar quote first.
What would have to change
- Power would have to cost 54¢/kWh, 1.6 times what CA pays now.
- Or the average wind at the hub would have to be 5.4 m/s instead of 4.5. A taller tower or an exposed ridge can add some of that; a rooftop never will.
Against the rest of CA
Merced County is the 1,743rd windiest of 3,144 US counties at turbine height; the national middle is 4.79 m/s. The windiest in CA is San Francisco County at 6.53 m/s, payback 13 years.
Month by month in Merced County
June is the strongest month here, at 5.54 m/s and about 1,340 kWh. January is the weakest, 3.53 m/s and 378 kWh, so the best month makes 3.5 times the worst. November to March brings in 26% of the year's output in Merced County.
| Month | Wind at 30 m | Output | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 3.53 m/s | 378 kWh | $123 |
| February | 4.09 m/s | 542 kWh | $177 |
| March | 4.35 m/s | 716 kWh | $233 |
| April | 4.98 m/s | 1,020 kWh | $332 |
| May | 5.26 m/s | 1,216 kWh | $396 |
| June | 5.54 m/s | 1,340 kWh | $437 |
| July | 5.15 m/s | 1,153 kWh | $376 |
| August | 4.87 m/s | 988 kWh | $322 |
| September | 4.53 m/s | 784 kWh | $255 |
| October | 4.13 m/s | 616 kWh | $201 |
| November | 3.69 m/s | 421 kWh | $137 |
| December | 3.81 m/s | 480 kWh | $156 |
What a taller tower would buy
Measured at 10 m the wind in Merced County averages 3.55 m/s; at 50 m it is 5.02 m/s. That gives a shear exponent of 0.215, typical of ordinary open country. Going from 20 m to 50 m takes output from 7,208 to 12,670 kWh a year, 76% more, before counting the extra cost of the taller tower. Why tower height decides it explains the shear behind these numbers.
| Hub height | Average wind | Output | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 m | 4.12 m/s | 7,208 kWh | 43 years |
| 30 m | 4.5 m/s | 9,326 kWh | 33 years |
| 40 m | 4.78 m/s | 11,114 kWh | 28 years |
| 50 m | 5.02 m/s | 12,670 kWh | 24 years |
Counties around Merced County
None of the 6 closest counties is windier than Merced County.
- Stanislaus County, CA: 4.35 m/s, 8,460 kWh, payback 36 years (30 mi)
- San Benito County, CA: 3.61 m/s, 4,778 kWh, payback 64 years (45 mi)
- Mariposa County, CA: 3.18 m/s, 3,165 kWh, payback 97 years (52 mi)
- Santa Clara County, CA: 3.46 m/s, 4,172 kWh, payback 74 years (53 mi)
- Madera County, CA: 3.56 m/s, 4,570 kWh, payback 67 years (54 mi)
- San Joaquin County, CA: 4.09 m/s, 7,038 kWh, payback 44 years (59 mi)
Sun versus wind in Merced County
Merced County gets 5.35 kWh of sunshine per square metre a day on average. One kW of solar panels here would make roughly 1,562 kWh a year; one kW of the turbine above makes 934. Kilowatt for kilowatt, panels make 1.7 times as much here as the turbine. Panel output assumes an 80% system performance ratio. Wind or solar runs the same comparison for every county.
How this is worked out
Wind is NASA's Power climate record, the 2001-2025 average at 10 m and 50 m for the county's centre, carried to 30 m with this county's own measured wind shear and spread into hours with a Rayleigh distribution. The turbine is a generic 10 kW, 7 m rotor machine with 10% losses. Cost is $10,000 per kW installed with no tax credit, because the federal one ended in 2025. One county-centre number cannot see your hilltop or your tree line, so treat it as the starting point for a site survey, not a substitute. The full method and its weak spots are in how the numbers are made.