Wind Turbine Payback in Madera County, CA
Wind turbine payback in Madera County
No. The turbine wears out before it pays for itself.
At 30 m, the height a home turbine tower usually reaches, the wind in Madera County, CA averages 3.56 m/s (8 mph). A 10 kW turbine there would make about 4,570 kWh a year, worth $1,489 at CA's 32.58¢/kWh. Against an installed cost of about $100,000, that is a payback of 67 years, and the turbine is built to last about 20.
What to do in Madera County
A home turbine is not worth buying for savings in Madera County unless your spot is far windier than the county average, 5.4 m/s at the hub against 3.56 m/s here. Per kW, solar panels would make about 1,556 kWh a year here against the turbine's 457, so get a solar quote first.
What would have to change
- Power would have to cost 109¢/kWh, 3.4 times what CA pays now.
- Or the average wind at the hub would have to be 5.4 m/s instead of 3.56. A taller tower or an exposed ridge can add some of that; a rooftop never will.
Against the rest of CA
Madera County is the 2,451st windiest of 3,144 US counties at turbine height; the national middle is 4.79 m/s. The windiest in CA is San Francisco County at 6.53 m/s, payback 13 years.
Month by month in Madera County
June is the strongest month here, at 4.36 m/s and about 700 kWh. November is the weakest, 2.96 m/s and 204 kWh, so the best month makes 3.4 times the worst. November to March brings in 30% of the year's output in Madera County.
| Month | Wind at 30 m | Output | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 3.12 m/s | 253 kWh | $82 |
| February | 3.44 m/s | 315 kWh | $103 |
| March | 3.52 m/s | 376 kWh | $123 |
| April | 3.99 m/s | 537 kWh | $175 |
| May | 4.19 m/s | 642 kWh | $209 |
| June | 4.36 m/s | 700 kWh | $228 |
| July | 4.00 m/s | 559 kWh | $182 |
| August | 3.55 m/s | 385 kWh | $125 |
| September | 3.26 m/s | 281 kWh | $92 |
| October | 3.12 m/s | 253 kWh | $82 |
| November | 2.96 m/s | 204 kWh | $66 |
| December | 3.27 m/s | 296 kWh | $96 |
What a taller tower would buy
Measured at 10 m the wind in Madera County averages 2.82 m/s; at 50 m it is 3.97 m/s. That gives a shear exponent of 0.213, typical of ordinary open country. Going from 20 m to 50 m takes output from 3,457 to 6,428 kWh a year, 86% more, before counting the extra cost of the taller tower. Why tower height decides it explains the shear behind these numbers.
| Hub height | Average wind | Output | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 m | 3.27 m/s | 3,457 kWh | 89 years |
| 30 m | 3.56 m/s | 4,573 kWh | 67 years |
| 40 m | 3.79 m/s | 5,549 kWh | 55 years |
| 50 m | 3.97 m/s | 6,428 kWh | 48 years |
Counties around Madera County
3 of the 6 closest counties are windier at turbine height; the windiest, Merced County, averages 4.5 m/s.
- Mariposa County, CA: 3.18 m/s, 3,165 kWh, payback 97 years (27 mi)
- Fresno County, CA: 2.88 m/s, 2,259 kWh, payback over 100 years (31 mi)
- Merced County, CA: 4.5 m/s, 9,339 kWh, payback 33 years (54 mi)
- Tuolumne County, CA: 3.32 m/s, 3,648 kWh, payback 84 years (57 mi)
- Mono County, CA: 4.05 m/s, 6,831 kWh, payback 45 years (68 mi)
- Stanislaus County, CA: 4.35 m/s, 8,460 kWh, payback 36 years (73 mi)
Sun versus wind in Madera County
Madera County gets 5.33 kWh of sunshine per square metre a day on average. One kW of solar panels here would make roughly 1,556 kWh a year; one kW of the turbine above makes 457. Kilowatt for kilowatt, panels make 3.4 times as much here as the turbine. Panel output assumes an 80% system performance ratio. Wind or solar runs the same comparison for every county.
How this is worked out
Wind is NASA's Power climate record, the 2001-2025 average at 10 m and 50 m for the county's centre, carried to 30 m with this county's own measured wind shear and spread into hours with a Rayleigh distribution. The turbine is a generic 10 kW, 7 m rotor machine with 10% losses. Cost is $10,000 per kW installed with no tax credit, because the federal one ended in 2025. One county-centre number cannot see your hilltop or your tree line, so treat it as the starting point for a site survey, not a substitute. The full method and its weak spots are in how the numbers are made.