Wind Turbine Payback in Natrona County, WY
Wind turbine payback in Natrona County
No. The turbine wears out before it pays for itself.
At 30 m, the height a home turbine tower usually reaches, the wind in Natrona County, WY averages 6.38 m/s (14.3 mph). A 10 kW turbine there would make about 22,521 kWh a year, worth $3,155 at WY's 14.01¢/kWh. Against an installed cost of about $100,000, that is a payback of 32 years, and the turbine is built to last about 20.
What to do in Natrona County
A home turbine is not worth buying for savings in Natrona County unless your spot is far windier than the county average, 8.3 m/s at the hub against 6.38 m/s here. Per kW, solar panels would make about 1,340 kWh a year here against the turbine's 2,252, so get a solar quote first.
What would have to change
- Power would have to cost 22¢/kWh, 1.6 times what WY pays now.
- Or the average wind at the hub would have to be 8.3 m/s instead of 6.38. A taller tower or an exposed ridge can add some of that; a rooftop never will.
Against the rest of WY
Natrona County is the 359th windiest of 3,144 US counties at turbine height; the national middle is 4.79 m/s. The windiest in WY is Albany County at 7.32 m/s, payback 24 years.
Month by month in Natrona County
January is the strongest month here, at 7.94 m/s and about 2,840 kWh. July is the weakest, 4.82 m/s and 961 kWh, so the best month makes 3.0 times the worst. November to March brings in 56% of the year's output in Natrona County.
| Month | Wind at 30 m | Output | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 7.94 m/s | 2,840 kWh | $398 |
| February | 7.31 m/s | 2,242 kWh | $314 |
| March | 6.96 m/s | 2,271 kWh | $318 |
| April | 6.35 m/s | 1,830 kWh | $256 |
| May | 5.62 m/s | 1,434 kWh | $201 |
| June | 5.48 m/s | 1,307 kWh | $183 |
| July | 4.82 m/s | 961 kWh | $135 |
| August | 4.92 m/s | 1,021 kWh | $143 |
| September | 5.67 m/s | 1,420 kWh | $199 |
| October | 6.47 m/s | 1,970 kWh | $276 |
| November | 7.39 m/s | 2,448 kWh | $343 |
| December | 7.73 m/s | 2,726 kWh | $382 |
What a taller tower would buy
Measured at 10 m the wind in Natrona County averages 5.09 m/s; at 50 m it is 7.09 m/s. That gives a shear exponent of 0.206, typical of ordinary open country. Going from 20 m to 50 m takes output from 18,746 to 27,684 kWh a year, 48% more, before counting the extra cost of the taller tower. Why tower height decides it explains the shear behind these numbers.
| Hub height | Average wind | Output | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 m | 5.87 m/s | 18,746 kWh | 38 years |
| 30 m | 6.38 m/s | 22,535 kWh | 32 years |
| 40 m | 6.77 m/s | 25,395 kWh | 28 years |
| 50 m | 7.09 m/s | 27,684 kWh | 26 years |
Counties around Natrona County
1 of the 6 closest counties is windier at turbine height; the windiest, Converse County, averages 6.97 m/s.
- Converse County, WY: 6.97 m/s, 26,828 kWh, payback 27 years (63 mi)
- Johnson County, WY: 4.98 m/s, 12,400 kWh, payback 58 years (74 mi)
- Washakie County, WY: 4.36 m/s, 8,517 kWh, payback 84 years (77 mi)
- Carbon County, WY: 6.1 m/s, 20,446 kWh, payback 35 years (88 mi)
- Fremont County, WY: 5.48 m/s, 15,893 kWh, payback 45 years (93 mi)
- Hot Springs County, WY: 4.66 m/s, 10,320 kWh, payback 69 years (98 mi)
Sun versus wind in Natrona County
Natrona County gets 4.59 kWh of sunshine per square metre a day on average. One kW of solar panels here would make roughly 1,340 kWh a year; one kW of the turbine above makes 2,252. This is one of the rare places where a kilowatt of turbine out-produces a kilowatt of panels, by 1.7 times. Panel output assumes an 80% system performance ratio. Wind or solar runs the same comparison for every county.
How this is worked out
Wind is NASA's Power climate record, the 2001-2025 average at 10 m and 50 m for the county's centre, carried to 30 m with this county's own measured wind shear and spread into hours with a Rayleigh distribution. The turbine is a generic 10 kW, 7 m rotor machine with 10% losses. Cost is $10,000 per kW installed with no tax credit, because the federal one ended in 2025. One county-centre number cannot see your hilltop or your tree line, so treat it as the starting point for a site survey, not a substitute. The full method and its weak spots are in how the numbers are made.