Wind Turbine Payback in Nelson County, VA
Wind turbine payback in Nelson County
No. The turbine wears out before it pays for itself.
At 30 m, the height a home turbine tower usually reaches, the wind in Nelson County, VA averages 3.27 m/s (7.3 mph). A 10 kW turbine there would make about 3,471 kWh a year, worth $588 at VA's 16.95¢/kWh. Against an installed cost of about $100,000, that is a payback of over 100 years, and the turbine is built to last about 20.
What to do in Nelson County
A home turbine is not worth buying for savings in Nelson County unless your spot is far windier than the county average, 7.3 m/s at the hub against 3.27 m/s here. Per kW, solar panels would make about 1,250 kWh a year here against the turbine's 347, so get a solar quote first.
What would have to change
- Power would have to cost 144¢/kWh, 8.5 times what VA pays now.
- Or the average wind at the hub would have to be 7.3 m/s instead of 3.27. A taller tower or an exposed ridge can add some of that; a rooftop never will.
Against the rest of VA
Nelson County is the 2,787th windiest of 3,144 US counties at turbine height; the national middle is 4.79 m/s. The windiest in VA is Northampton County at 7.01 m/s, payback 22 years.
Month by month in Nelson County
March is the strongest month here, at 3.85 m/s and about 497 kWh. August is the weakest, 2.50 m/s and 115 kWh, so the best month makes 4.3 times the worst. November to March brings in 57% of the year's output in Nelson County.
| Month | Wind at 30 m | Output | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 3.75 m/s | 459 kWh | $78 |
| February | 3.88 m/s | 460 kWh | $78 |
| March | 3.85 m/s | 497 kWh | $84 |
| April | 3.76 m/s | 447 kWh | $76 |
| May | 3.11 m/s | 251 kWh | $43 |
| June | 2.86 m/s | 181 kWh | $31 |
| July | 2.62 m/s | 137 kWh | $23 |
| August | 2.50 m/s | 115 kWh | $19 |
| September | 2.82 m/s | 172 kWh | $29 |
| October | 3.23 m/s | 284 kWh | $48 |
| November | 3.45 m/s | 340 kWh | $58 |
| December | 3.45 m/s | 351 kWh | $59 |
What a taller tower would buy
Measured at 10 m the wind in Nelson County averages 2.02 m/s; at 50 m it is 4.1 m/s. That gives a shear exponent of 0.440, typical of rough, sheltered ground: trees or buildings slow the low wind a lot. Going from 20 m to 50 m takes output from 1,894 to 7,090 kWh a year, 274% more, before counting the extra cost of the taller tower. Why tower height decides it explains the shear behind these numbers.
| Hub height | Average wind | Output | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 m | 2.74 m/s | 1,894 kWh | over 100 years |
| 30 m | 3.27 m/s | 3,487 kWh | over 100 years |
| 40 m | 3.72 m/s | 5,238 kWh | over 100 years |
| 50 m | 4.1 m/s | 7,090 kWh | 83 years |
Counties around Nelson County
None of the 6 closest counties is windier than Nelson County.
- Amherst County, VA: 3.02 m/s, 2,661 kWh, payback over 100 years (18 mi)
- Waynesboro city, VA: 3.27 m/s, 3,471 kWh, payback over 100 years (19 mi)
- Albemarle County, VA: 3.27 m/s, 3,471 kWh, payback over 100 years (24 mi)
- Buckingham County, VA: 3.08 m/s, 2,844 kWh, payback over 100 years (24 mi)
- Buena Vista city, VA: 3.02 m/s, 2,661 kWh, payback over 100 years (26 mi)
- Staunton city, VA: 3.27 m/s, 3,471 kWh, payback over 100 years (27 mi)
Sun versus wind in Nelson County
Nelson County gets 4.28 kWh of sunshine per square metre a day on average. One kW of solar panels here would make roughly 1,250 kWh a year; one kW of the turbine above makes 347. Kilowatt for kilowatt, panels make 3.6 times as much here as the turbine. Panel output assumes an 80% system performance ratio. Wind or solar runs the same comparison for every county.
How this is worked out
Wind is NASA's Power climate record, the 2001-2025 average at 10 m and 50 m for the county's centre, carried to 30 m with this county's own measured wind shear and spread into hours with a Rayleigh distribution. The turbine is a generic 10 kW, 7 m rotor machine with 10% losses. Cost is $10,000 per kW installed with no tax credit, because the federal one ended in 2025. One county-centre number cannot see your hilltop or your tree line, so treat it as the starting point for a site survey, not a substitute. The full method and its weak spots are in how the numbers are made.