Wind Turbine Payback in Saguache County, CO
Wind turbine payback in Saguache County
No. The turbine wears out before it pays for itself.
At 30 m, the height a home turbine tower usually reaches, the wind in Saguache County, CO averages 5.18 m/s (11.6 mph). A 10 kW turbine there would make about 13,768 kWh a year, worth $2,313 at CO's 16.8¢/kWh. Against an installed cost of about $100,000, that is a payback of 43 years, and the turbine is built to last about 20.
What to do in Saguache County
A home turbine is not worth buying for savings in Saguache County unless your spot is far windier than the county average, 7.4 m/s at the hub against 5.18 m/s here. Per kW, solar panels would make about 1,457 kWh a year here against the turbine's 1,377, so get a solar quote first.
What would have to change
- Power would have to cost 36¢/kWh, 2.2 times what CO pays now.
- Or the average wind at the hub would have to be 7.4 m/s instead of 5.18. A taller tower or an exposed ridge can add some of that; a rooftop never will.
Against the rest of CO
Saguache County is the 1,389th windiest of 3,144 US counties at turbine height; the national middle is 4.79 m/s. The windiest in CO is Baca County at 6.65 m/s, payback 24 years.
Month by month in Saguache County
January is the strongest month here, at 6.29 m/s and about 1,857 kWh. July is the weakest, 3.32 m/s and 310 kWh, so the best month makes 6.0 times the worst. November to March brings in 58% of the year's output in Saguache County.
| Month | Wind at 30 m | Output | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 6.29 m/s | 1,857 kWh | $312 |
| February | 6.37 m/s | 1,724 kWh | $290 |
| March | 6.00 m/s | 1,676 kWh | $282 |
| April | 6.04 m/s | 1,644 kWh | $276 |
| May | 5.03 m/s | 1,083 kWh | $182 |
| June | 4.59 m/s | 813 kWh | $137 |
| July | 3.32 m/s | 310 kWh | $52 |
| August | 3.38 m/s | 330 kWh | $55 |
| September | 4.15 m/s | 604 kWh | $101 |
| October | 5.25 m/s | 1,209 kWh | $203 |
| November | 5.68 m/s | 1,425 kWh | $239 |
| December | 6.14 m/s | 1,761 kWh | $296 |
What a taller tower would buy
Measured at 10 m the wind in Saguache County averages 4.13 m/s; at 50 m it is 5.75 m/s. That gives a shear exponent of 0.206, typical of ordinary open country. Going from 20 m to 50 m takes output from 10,960 to 17,859 kWh a year, 63% more, before counting the extra cost of the taller tower. Why tower height decides it explains the shear behind these numbers.
| Hub height | Average wind | Output | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 m | 4.76 m/s | 10,960 kWh | 54 years |
| 30 m | 5.18 m/s | 13,738 kWh | 43 years |
| 40 m | 5.49 m/s | 15,977 kWh | 37 years |
| 50 m | 5.75 m/s | 17,859 kWh | 33 years |
Counties around Saguache County
None of the 6 closest counties is windier than Saguache County.
- Rio Grande County, CO: 4.91 m/s, 11,933 kWh, payback 50 years (40 mi)
- Alamosa County, CO: 4.5 m/s, 9,339 kWh, payback 64 years (40 mi)
- Custer County, CO: 4.56 m/s, 9,702 kWh, payback 61 years (47 mi)
- Chaffee County, CO: 5.01 m/s, 12,602 kWh, payback 47 years (49 mi)
- Fremont County, CO: 4.87 m/s, 11,668 kWh, payback 51 years (53 mi)
- Mineral County, CO: 4.07 m/s, 6,934 kWh, payback 86 years (54 mi)
Sun versus wind in Saguache County
Saguache County gets 4.99 kWh of sunshine per square metre a day on average. One kW of solar panels here would make roughly 1,457 kWh a year; one kW of the turbine above makes 1,377. Kilowatt for kilowatt, panels make 1.1 times as much here as the turbine. Panel output assumes an 80% system performance ratio. Wind or solar runs the same comparison for every county.
How this is worked out
Wind is NASA's Power climate record, the 2001-2025 average at 10 m and 50 m for the county's centre, carried to 30 m with this county's own measured wind shear and spread into hours with a Rayleigh distribution. The turbine is a generic 10 kW, 7 m rotor machine with 10% losses. Cost is $10,000 per kW installed with no tax credit, because the federal one ended in 2025. One county-centre number cannot see your hilltop or your tree line, so treat it as the starting point for a site survey, not a substitute. The full method and its weak spots are in how the numbers are made.