Wind Turbine Payback in San Juan County, CO
Wind turbine payback in San Juan County
No. The turbine wears out before it pays for itself.
At 30 m, the height a home turbine tower usually reaches, the wind in San Juan County, CO averages 3.36 m/s (7.5 mph). A 10 kW turbine there would make about 3,794 kWh a year, worth $637 at CO's 16.8¢/kWh. Against an installed cost of about $100,000, that is a payback of over 100 years, and the turbine is built to last about 20.
What to do in San Juan County
A home turbine is not worth buying for savings in San Juan County unless your spot is far windier than the county average, 7.4 m/s at the hub against 3.36 m/s here. Per kW, solar panels would make about 1,472 kWh a year here against the turbine's 379, so get a solar quote first.
What would have to change
- Power would have to cost 132¢/kWh, 7.8 times what CO pays now.
- Or the average wind at the hub would have to be 7.4 m/s instead of 3.36. A taller tower or an exposed ridge can add some of that; a rooftop never will.
Against the rest of CO
San Juan County is the 2,665th windiest of 3,144 US counties at turbine height; the national middle is 4.79 m/s. The windiest in CO is Baca County at 6.65 m/s, payback 24 years.
Month by month in San Juan County
April is the strongest month here, at 4.22 m/s and about 634 kWh. July is the weakest, 2.43 m/s and 104 kWh, so the best month makes 6.1 times the worst. November to March brings in 45% of the year's output in San Juan County.
| Month | Wind at 30 m | Output | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 3.22 m/s | 281 kWh | $47 |
| February | 3.74 m/s | 410 kWh | $69 |
| March | 3.78 m/s | 467 kWh | $78 |
| April | 4.22 m/s | 634 kWh | $107 |
| May | 3.75 m/s | 457 kWh | $77 |
| June | 3.55 m/s | 374 kWh | $63 |
| July | 2.43 m/s | 104 kWh | $17 |
| August | 2.46 m/s | 108 kWh | $18 |
| September | 2.97 m/s | 206 kWh | $35 |
| October | 3.39 m/s | 333 kWh | $56 |
| November | 3.44 m/s | 335 kWh | $56 |
| December | 3.42 m/s | 341 kWh | $57 |
What a taller tower would buy
Measured at 10 m the wind in San Juan County averages 2.36 m/s; at 50 m it is 3.96 m/s. That gives a shear exponent of 0.322, typical of rough, sheltered ground: trees or buildings slow the low wind a lot. Going from 20 m to 50 m takes output from 2,450 to 6,378 kWh a year, 160% more, before counting the extra cost of the taller tower. Why tower height decides it explains the shear behind these numbers.
| Hub height | Average wind | Output | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 m | 2.95 m/s | 2,450 kWh | over 100 years |
| 30 m | 3.36 m/s | 3,791 kWh | over 100 years |
| 40 m | 3.69 m/s | 5,101 kWh | over 100 years |
| 50 m | 3.96 m/s | 6,378 kWh | 93 years |
Counties around San Juan County
4 of the 6 closest counties are windier at turbine height; the windiest, Dolores County, averages 4.23 m/s.
- Hinsdale County, CO: 3.36 m/s, 3,794 kWh, payback over 100 years (16 mi)
- Ouray County, CO: 3.36 m/s, 3,794 kWh, payback over 100 years (27 mi)
- La Plata County, CO: 4.22 m/s, 7,732 kWh, payback 77 years (35 mi)
- Mineral County, CO: 4.07 m/s, 6,934 kWh, payback 86 years (40 mi)
- San Miguel County, CO: 3.84 m/s, 5,800 kWh, payback over 100 years (44 mi)
- Dolores County, CO: 4.23 m/s, 7,787 kWh, payback 76 years (46 mi)
Sun versus wind in San Juan County
San Juan County gets 5.04 kWh of sunshine per square metre a day on average. One kW of solar panels here would make roughly 1,472 kWh a year; one kW of the turbine above makes 379. Kilowatt for kilowatt, panels make 3.9 times as much here as the turbine. Panel output assumes an 80% system performance ratio. Wind or solar runs the same comparison for every county.
How this is worked out
Wind is NASA's Power climate record, the 2001-2025 average at 10 m and 50 m for the county's centre, carried to 30 m with this county's own measured wind shear and spread into hours with a Rayleigh distribution. The turbine is a generic 10 kW, 7 m rotor machine with 10% losses. Cost is $10,000 per kW installed with no tax credit, because the federal one ended in 2025. One county-centre number cannot see your hilltop or your tree line, so treat it as the starting point for a site survey, not a substitute. The full method and its weak spots are in how the numbers are made.