Wind Turbine Payback in Shenandoah County, VA
Wind turbine payback in Shenandoah County
No. The turbine wears out before it pays for itself.
At 30 m, the height a home turbine tower usually reaches, the wind in Shenandoah County, VA averages 3.37 m/s (7.5 mph). A 10 kW turbine there would make about 3,830 kWh a year, worth $649 at VA's 16.95¢/kWh. Against an installed cost of about $100,000, that is a payback of over 100 years, and the turbine is built to last about 20.
What to do in Shenandoah County
A home turbine is not worth buying for savings in Shenandoah County unless your spot is far windier than the county average, 7.3 m/s at the hub against 3.37 m/s here. Per kW, solar panels would make about 1,203 kWh a year here against the turbine's 383, so get a solar quote first.
What would have to change
- Power would have to cost 131¢/kWh, 7.7 times what VA pays now.
- Or the average wind at the hub would have to be 7.3 m/s instead of 3.37. A taller tower or an exposed ridge can add some of that; a rooftop never will.
Against the rest of VA
Shenandoah County is the 2,653rd windiest of 3,144 US counties at turbine height; the national middle is 4.79 m/s. The windiest in VA is Northampton County at 7.01 m/s, payback 22 years.
Month by month in Shenandoah County
January is the strongest month here, at 4.20 m/s and about 646 kWh. August is the weakest, 2.45 m/s and 106 kWh, so the best month makes 6.1 times the worst. November to March brings in 63% of the year's output in Shenandoah County.
| Month | Wind at 30 m | Output | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 4.20 m/s | 646 kWh | $109 |
| February | 4.26 m/s | 610 kWh | $103 |
| March | 4.05 m/s | 579 kWh | $98 |
| April | 3.82 m/s | 471 kWh | $80 |
| May | 3.09 m/s | 245 kWh | $42 |
| June | 2.82 m/s | 172 kWh | $29 |
| July | 2.56 m/s | 126 kWh | $21 |
| August | 2.45 m/s | 106 kWh | $18 |
| September | 2.71 m/s | 149 kWh | $25 |
| October | 3.21 m/s | 278 kWh | $47 |
| November | 3.55 m/s | 371 kWh | $63 |
| December | 3.82 m/s | 483 kWh | $82 |
What a taller tower would buy
Measured at 10 m the wind in Shenandoah County averages 2.05 m/s; at 50 m it is 4.25 m/s. That gives a shear exponent of 0.453, typical of rough, sheltered ground: trees or buildings slow the low wind a lot. Going from 20 m to 50 m takes output from 2,063 to 7,897 kWh a year, 283% more, before counting the extra cost of the taller tower. Why tower height decides it explains the shear behind these numbers.
| Hub height | Average wind | Output | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 m | 2.81 m/s | 2,063 kWh | over 100 years |
| 30 m | 3.37 m/s | 3,838 kWh | over 100 years |
| 40 m | 3.84 m/s | 5,807 kWh | over 100 years |
| 50 m | 4.25 m/s | 7,897 kWh | 75 years |
Counties around Shenandoah County
4 of the 6 closest counties are windier at turbine height; the windiest, Page County, averages 3.76 m/s.
- Page County, VA: 3.76 m/s, 5,432 kWh, payback over 100 years (17 mi)
- Hardy County, WV: 3.37 m/s, 3,830 kWh, payback over 100 years (18 mi)
- Warren County, VA: 3.48 m/s, 4,250 kWh, payback over 100 years (20 mi)
- Rappahannock County, VA: 3.31 m/s, 3,612 kWh, payback over 100 years (25 mi)
- Frederick County, VA: 3.48 m/s, 4,250 kWh, payback over 100 years (29 mi)
- Rockingham County, VA: 3.76 m/s, 5,432 kWh, payback over 100 years (29 mi)
Sun versus wind in Shenandoah County
Shenandoah County gets 4.12 kWh of sunshine per square metre a day on average. One kW of solar panels here would make roughly 1,203 kWh a year; one kW of the turbine above makes 383. Kilowatt for kilowatt, panels make 3.1 times as much here as the turbine. Panel output assumes an 80% system performance ratio. Wind or solar runs the same comparison for every county.
How this is worked out
Wind is NASA's Power climate record, the 2001-2025 average at 10 m and 50 m for the county's centre, carried to 30 m with this county's own measured wind shear and spread into hours with a Rayleigh distribution. The turbine is a generic 10 kW, 7 m rotor machine with 10% losses. Cost is $10,000 per kW installed with no tax credit, because the federal one ended in 2025. One county-centre number cannot see your hilltop or your tree line, so treat it as the starting point for a site survey, not a substitute. The full method and its weak spots are in how the numbers are made.