Wind Turbine Payback in Barnes County, ND
Wind turbine payback in Barnes County
No. The turbine wears out before it pays for itself.
At 30 m, the height a home turbine tower usually reaches, the wind in Barnes County, ND averages 6.44 m/s (14.4 mph). A 10 kW turbine there would make about 22,964 kWh a year, worth $2,861 at ND's 12.46¢/kWh. Against an installed cost of about $100,000, that is a payback of 35 years, and the turbine is built to last about 20.
What to do in Barnes County
A home turbine is not worth buying for savings in Barnes County unless your spot is far windier than the county average, 9.1 m/s at the hub against 6.44 m/s here. Per kW, solar panels would make about 1,171 kWh a year here against the turbine's 2,296, so get a solar quote first.
What would have to change
- Power would have to cost 22¢/kWh, 1.7 times what ND pays now.
- Or the average wind at the hub would have to be 9.1 m/s instead of 6.44. A taller tower or an exposed ridge can add some of that; a rooftop never will.
Against the rest of ND
Barnes County is the 280th windiest of 3,144 US counties at turbine height; the national middle is 4.79 m/s. The windiest in ND is Bowman County at 6.79 m/s, payback 31 years.
Month by month in Barnes County
October is the strongest month here, at 7.05 m/s and about 2,325 kWh. July is the weakest, 5.55 m/s and 1,395 kWh, so the best month makes 1.7 times the worst. November to March brings in 43% of the year's output in Barnes County.
| Month | Wind at 30 m | Output | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 6.55 m/s | 2,020 kWh | $252 |
| February | 6.42 m/s | 1,749 kWh | $218 |
| March | 6.64 m/s | 2,076 kWh | $259 |
| April | 6.89 m/s | 2,160 kWh | $269 |
| May | 6.77 m/s | 2,154 kWh | $268 |
| June | 6.13 m/s | 1,698 kWh | $212 |
| July | 5.55 m/s | 1,395 kWh | $174 |
| August | 5.70 m/s | 1,484 kWh | $185 |
| September | 6.56 m/s | 1,961 kWh | $244 |
| October | 7.05 m/s | 2,325 kWh | $290 |
| November | 6.71 m/s | 2,053 kWh | $256 |
| December | 6.43 m/s | 1,942 kWh | $242 |
What a taller tower would buy
Measured at 10 m the wind in Barnes County averages 5.12 m/s; at 50 m it is 7.17 m/s. That gives a shear exponent of 0.209, typical of ordinary open country. Going from 20 m to 50 m takes output from 19,115 to 28,250 kWh a year, 48% more, before counting the extra cost of the taller tower. Why tower height decides it explains the shear behind these numbers.
| Hub height | Average wind | Output | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 m | 5.92 m/s | 19,115 kWh | 42 years |
| 30 m | 6.44 m/s | 22,994 kWh | 35 years |
| 40 m | 6.84 m/s | 25,916 kWh | 31 years |
| 50 m | 7.17 m/s | 28,250 kWh | 28 years |
Counties around Barnes County
3 of the 6 closest counties are windier at turbine height; the windiest, LaMoure County, averages 6.61 m/s.
- Griggs County, ND: 6.5 m/s, 23,407 kWh, payback 34 years (36 mi)
- Cass County, ND: 6.35 m/s, 22,299 kWh, payback 36 years (39 mi)
- Steele County, ND: 6.41 m/s, 22,743 kWh, payback 35 years (39 mi)
- LaMoure County, ND: 6.61 m/s, 24,216 kWh, payback 33 years (39 mi)
- Ransom County, ND: 6.28 m/s, 21,781 kWh, payback 37 years (40 mi)
- Stutsman County, ND: 6.55 m/s, 23,775 kWh, payback 34 years (42 mi)
Sun versus wind in Barnes County
Barnes County gets 4.01 kWh of sunshine per square metre a day on average. One kW of solar panels here would make roughly 1,171 kWh a year; one kW of the turbine above makes 2,296. This is one of the rare places where a kilowatt of turbine out-produces a kilowatt of panels, by 2.0 times. Panel output assumes an 80% system performance ratio. Wind or solar runs the same comparison for every county.
How this is worked out
Wind is NASA's Power climate record, the 2001-2025 average at 10 m and 50 m for the county's centre, carried to 30 m with this county's own measured wind shear and spread into hours with a Rayleigh distribution. The turbine is a generic 10 kW, 7 m rotor machine with 10% losses. Cost is $10,000 per kW installed with no tax credit, because the federal one ended in 2025. One county-centre number cannot see your hilltop or your tree line, so treat it as the starting point for a site survey, not a substitute. The full method and its weak spots are in how the numbers are made.