Wind Turbine Payback in Chugach Census Area, AK
Wind turbine payback in Chugach Census Area
Only just. The money comes back late in the turbine's life.
At 30 m, the height a home turbine tower usually reaches, the wind in Chugach Census Area, AK averages 6.07 m/s (13.6 mph). A 10 kW turbine there would make about 20,223 kWh a year, worth $5,525 at AK's 27.32¢/kWh. Against an installed cost of about $100,000, that is a payback of 18 years, and the turbine is built to last about 20.
What to do in Chugach Census Area
It is close enough that your own site decides it. If you have open land with no trees or buildings upwind, ask an installer to log the wind at 30 m or higher; anything above 5.8 m/s pays back in time. Per kW, solar panels would make about 680 kWh a year here against the turbine's 2,022, so get a solar quote first.
What would have to change
- Power already costs enough here: break-even is 25¢/kWh and AK pays 27.32¢.
- The wind clears the break-even speed of 5.8 m/s at today's price.
Against the rest of AK
Chugach Census Area is the 717th windiest of 3,144 US counties at turbine height; the national middle is 4.79 m/s. The windiest in AK is Aleutians West Census Area at 9.35 m/s, payback 9 years.
Month by month in Chugach Census Area
December is the strongest month here, at 8.04 m/s and about 2,895 kWh. June is the weakest, 3.90 m/s and 501 kWh, so the best month makes 5.8 times the worst. November to March brings in 63% of the year's output in Chugach Census Area.
| Month | Wind at 30 m | Output | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 7.89 m/s | 2,813 kWh | $769 |
| February | 7.42 m/s | 2,299 kWh | $628 |
| March | 6.86 m/s | 2,211 kWh | $604 |
| April | 5.47 m/s | 1,301 kWh | $355 |
| May | 4.47 m/s | 778 kWh | $213 |
| June | 3.90 m/s | 501 kWh | $137 |
| July | 4.00 m/s | 557 kWh | $152 |
| August | 4.63 m/s | 861 kWh | $235 |
| September | 5.79 m/s | 1,493 kWh | $408 |
| October | 6.53 m/s | 2,006 kWh | $548 |
| November | 7.91 m/s | 2,733 kWh | $747 |
| December | 8.04 m/s | 2,895 kWh | $791 |
What a taller tower would buy
Measured at 10 m the wind in Chugach Census Area averages 5.37 m/s; at 50 m it is 6.42 m/s. That gives a shear exponent of 0.111, typical of very open, smooth ground where height adds little. Going from 20 m to 50 m takes output from 18,220 to 22,817 kWh a year, 25% more, before counting the extra cost of the taller tower. Why tower height decides it explains the shear behind these numbers.
| Hub height | Average wind | Output | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 m | 5.8 m/s | 18,220 kWh | 20 years |
| 30 m | 6.07 m/s | 20,194 kWh | 18 years |
| 40 m | 6.26 m/s | 21,654 kWh | 17 years |
| 50 m | 6.42 m/s | 22,817 kWh | 16 years |
Counties around Chugach Census Area
None of the 6 closest counties is windier than Chugach Census Area.
- Anchorage Municipality, AK: 3.5 m/s, 4,329 kWh, payback 85 years (114 mi)
- Copper River Census Area, AK: 2.86 m/s, 2,205 kWh, payback over 100 years (131 mi)
- Matanuska-Susitna Borough, AK: 4.5 m/s, 9,339 kWh, payback 39 years (164 mi)
- Yakutat City and Borough, AK: 3.62 m/s, 4,820 kWh, payback 76 years (201 mi)
- Kenai Peninsula Borough, AK: 3.87 m/s, 5,942 kWh, payback 62 years (209 mi)
- Southeast Fairbanks Census Area, AK: 2.93 m/s, 2,398 kWh, payback over 100 years (252 mi)
Sun versus wind in Chugach Census Area
Chugach Census Area gets 2.33 kWh of sunshine per square metre a day on average. One kW of solar panels here would make roughly 680 kWh a year; one kW of the turbine above makes 2,022. This is one of the rare places where a kilowatt of turbine out-produces a kilowatt of panels, by 3.0 times. Panel output assumes an 80% system performance ratio. Wind or solar runs the same comparison for every county.
How this is worked out
Wind is NASA's Power climate record, the 2001-2025 average at 10 m and 50 m for the county's centre, carried to 30 m with this county's own measured wind shear and spread into hours with a Rayleigh distribution. The turbine is a generic 10 kW, 7 m rotor machine with 10% losses. Cost is $10,000 per kW installed with no tax credit, because the federal one ended in 2025. One county-centre number cannot see your hilltop or your tree line, so treat it as the starting point for a site survey, not a substitute. The full method and its weak spots are in how the numbers are made.