Wind Turbine Payback in Grand Forks County, ND
Wind turbine payback in Grand Forks County
No. The turbine wears out before it pays for itself.
At 30 m, the height a home turbine tower usually reaches, the wind in Grand Forks County, ND averages 6.4 m/s (14.3 mph). A 10 kW turbine there would make about 22,669 kWh a year, worth $2,825 at ND's 12.46¢/kWh. Against an installed cost of about $100,000, that is a payback of 35 years, and the turbine is built to last about 20.
What to do in Grand Forks County
A home turbine is not worth buying for savings in Grand Forks County unless your spot is far windier than the county average, 9.1 m/s at the hub against 6.4 m/s here. Per kW, solar panels would make about 1,121 kWh a year here against the turbine's 2,267, so get a solar quote first.
What would have to change
- Power would have to cost 22¢/kWh, 1.8 times what ND pays now.
- Or the average wind at the hub would have to be 9.1 m/s instead of 6.4. A taller tower or an exposed ridge can add some of that; a rooftop never will.
Against the rest of ND
Grand Forks County is the 322nd windiest of 3,144 US counties at turbine height; the national middle is 4.79 m/s. The windiest in ND is Bowman County at 6.79 m/s, payback 31 years.
Month by month in Grand Forks County
October is the strongest month here, at 6.93 m/s and about 2,257 kWh. July is the weakest, 5.57 m/s and 1,405 kWh, so the best month makes 1.6 times the worst. November to March brings in 43% of the year's output in Grand Forks County.
| Month | Wind at 30 m | Output | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 6.50 m/s | 1,990 kWh | $248 |
| February | 6.42 m/s | 1,752 kWh | $218 |
| March | 6.64 m/s | 2,074 kWh | $258 |
| April | 6.80 m/s | 2,104 kWh | $262 |
| May | 6.70 m/s | 2,113 kWh | $263 |
| June | 6.06 m/s | 1,658 kWh | $207 |
| July | 5.57 m/s | 1,405 kWh | $175 |
| August | 5.70 m/s | 1,488 kWh | $185 |
| September | 6.49 m/s | 1,921 kWh | $239 |
| October | 6.93 m/s | 2,257 kWh | $281 |
| November | 6.67 m/s | 2,029 kWh | $253 |
| December | 6.31 m/s | 1,866 kWh | $233 |
What a taller tower would buy
Measured at 10 m the wind in Grand Forks County averages 5.08 m/s; at 50 m it is 7.12 m/s. That gives a shear exponent of 0.210, typical of ordinary open country. Going from 20 m to 50 m takes output from 18,770 to 27,897 kWh a year, 49% more, before counting the extra cost of the taller tower. Why tower height decides it explains the shear behind these numbers.
| Hub height | Average wind | Output | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 m | 5.87 m/s | 18,770 kWh | 43 years |
| 30 m | 6.4 m/s | 22,638 kWh | 36 years |
| 40 m | 6.79 m/s | 25,559 kWh | 31 years |
| 50 m | 7.12 m/s | 27,897 kWh | 29 years |
Counties around Grand Forks County
3 of the 6 closest counties are windier at turbine height; the windiest, Nelson County, averages 6.53 m/s.
- Walsh County, ND: 6.37 m/s, 22,447 kWh, payback 36 years (34 mi)
- Nelson County, ND: 6.53 m/s, 23,628 kWh, payback 34 years (35 mi)
- Steele County, ND: 6.41 m/s, 22,743 kWh, payback 35 years (35 mi)
- Traill County, ND: 6.29 m/s, 21,855 kWh, payback 37 years (36 mi)
- Griggs County, ND: 6.5 m/s, 23,407 kWh, payback 34 years (49 mi)
- Polk County, MN: 6.34 m/s, 22,225 kWh, payback 27 years (50 mi)
Sun versus wind in Grand Forks County
Grand Forks County gets 3.84 kWh of sunshine per square metre a day on average. One kW of solar panels here would make roughly 1,121 kWh a year; one kW of the turbine above makes 2,267. This is one of the rare places where a kilowatt of turbine out-produces a kilowatt of panels, by 2.0 times. Panel output assumes an 80% system performance ratio. Wind or solar runs the same comparison for every county.
How this is worked out
Wind is NASA's Power climate record, the 2001-2025 average at 10 m and 50 m for the county's centre, carried to 30 m with this county's own measured wind shear and spread into hours with a Rayleigh distribution. The turbine is a generic 10 kW, 7 m rotor machine with 10% losses. Cost is $10,000 per kW installed with no tax credit, because the federal one ended in 2025. One county-centre number cannot see your hilltop or your tree line, so treat it as the starting point for a site survey, not a substitute. The full method and its weak spots are in how the numbers are made.