Wind Turbine Payback in Nelson County, ND
Wind turbine payback in Nelson County
No. The turbine wears out before it pays for itself.
At 30 m, the height a home turbine tower usually reaches, the wind in Nelson County, ND averages 6.53 m/s (14.6 mph). A 10 kW turbine there would make about 23,628 kWh a year, worth $2,944 at ND's 12.46¢/kWh. Against an installed cost of about $100,000, that is a payback of 34 years, and the turbine is built to last about 20.
What to do in Nelson County
A home turbine is not worth buying for savings in Nelson County unless your spot is far windier than the county average, 9.1 m/s at the hub against 6.53 m/s here. Per kW, solar panels would make about 1,145 kWh a year here against the turbine's 2,363, so get a solar quote first.
What would have to change
- Power would have to cost 21¢/kWh, 1.7 times what ND pays now.
- Or the average wind at the hub would have to be 9.1 m/s instead of 6.53. A taller tower or an exposed ridge can add some of that; a rooftop never will.
Against the rest of ND
Nelson County is the 165th windiest of 3,144 US counties at turbine height; the national middle is 4.79 m/s. The windiest in ND is Bowman County at 6.79 m/s, payback 31 years.
Month by month in Nelson County
October is the strongest month here, at 7.09 m/s and about 2,352 kWh. July is the weakest, 5.69 m/s and 1,482 kWh, so the best month makes 1.6 times the worst. November to March brings in 43% of the year's output in Nelson County.
| Month | Wind at 30 m | Output | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 6.66 m/s | 2,087 kWh | $260 |
| February | 6.51 m/s | 1,804 kWh | $225 |
| March | 6.77 m/s | 2,154 kWh | $268 |
| April | 6.94 m/s | 2,186 kWh | $272 |
| May | 6.83 m/s | 2,193 kWh | $273 |
| June | 6.20 m/s | 1,741 kWh | $217 |
| July | 5.69 m/s | 1,482 kWh | $185 |
| August | 5.83 m/s | 1,567 kWh | $195 |
| September | 6.60 m/s | 1,987 kWh | $248 |
| October | 7.09 m/s | 2,352 kWh | $293 |
| November | 6.85 m/s | 2,133 kWh | $266 |
| December | 6.47 m/s | 1,969 kWh | $245 |
What a taller tower would buy
Measured at 10 m the wind in Nelson County averages 5.22 m/s; at 50 m it is 7.25 m/s. That gives a shear exponent of 0.204, typical of ordinary open country. Going from 20 m to 50 m takes output from 19,807 to 28,811 kWh a year, 45% more, before counting the extra cost of the taller tower. Why tower height decides it explains the shear behind these numbers.
| Hub height | Average wind | Output | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 m | 6.01 m/s | 19,807 kWh | 41 years |
| 30 m | 6.53 m/s | 23,647 kWh | 34 years |
| 40 m | 6.93 m/s | 26,522 kWh | 30 years |
| 50 m | 7.25 m/s | 28,811 kWh | 28 years |
Counties around Nelson County
None of the 6 closest counties is windier than Nelson County.
- Griggs County, ND: 6.5 m/s, 23,407 kWh, payback 34 years (32 mi)
- Ramsey County, ND: 6.53 m/s, 23,628 kWh, payback 34 years (34 mi)
- Grand Forks County, ND: 6.4 m/s, 22,669 kWh, payback 35 years (35 mi)
- Eddy County, ND: 6.52 m/s, 23,554 kWh, payback 34 years (35 mi)
- Walsh County, ND: 6.37 m/s, 22,447 kWh, payback 36 years (39 mi)
- Steele County, ND: 6.41 m/s, 22,743 kWh, payback 35 years (39 mi)
Sun versus wind in Nelson County
Nelson County gets 3.92 kWh of sunshine per square metre a day on average. One kW of solar panels here would make roughly 1,145 kWh a year; one kW of the turbine above makes 2,363. This is one of the rare places where a kilowatt of turbine out-produces a kilowatt of panels, by 2.1 times. Panel output assumes an 80% system performance ratio. Wind or solar runs the same comparison for every county.
How this is worked out
Wind is NASA's Power climate record, the 2001-2025 average at 10 m and 50 m for the county's centre, carried to 30 m with this county's own measured wind shear and spread into hours with a Rayleigh distribution. The turbine is a generic 10 kW, 7 m rotor machine with 10% losses. Cost is $10,000 per kW installed with no tax credit, because the federal one ended in 2025. One county-centre number cannot see your hilltop or your tree line, so treat it as the starting point for a site survey, not a substitute. The full method and its weak spots are in how the numbers are made.