Wind Turbine Payback in Lincoln County, CO
Wind turbine payback in Lincoln County
No. The turbine wears out before it pays for itself.
At 30 m, the height a home turbine tower usually reaches, the wind in Lincoln County, CO averages 5.67 m/s (12.7 mph). A 10 kW turbine there would make about 17,272 kWh a year, worth $2,902 at CO's 16.8¢/kWh. Against an installed cost of about $100,000, that is a payback of 35 years, and the turbine is built to last about 20.
What to do in Lincoln County
A home turbine is not worth buying for savings in Lincoln County unless your spot is far windier than the county average, 7.4 m/s at the hub against 5.67 m/s here. Per kW, solar panels would make about 1,486 kWh a year here against the turbine's 1,727, so get a solar quote first.
What would have to change
- Power would have to cost 29¢/kWh, 1.7 times what CO pays now.
- Or the average wind at the hub would have to be 7.4 m/s instead of 5.67. A taller tower or an exposed ridge can add some of that; a rooftop never will.
Against the rest of CO
Lincoln County is the 1,142nd windiest of 3,144 US counties at turbine height; the national middle is 4.79 m/s. The windiest in CO is Baca County at 6.65 m/s, payback 24 years.
Month by month in Lincoln County
April is the strongest month here, at 6.56 m/s and about 1,963 kWh. July is the weakest, 4.81 m/s and 957 kWh, so the best month makes 2.1 times the worst. November to March brings in 45% of the year's output in Lincoln County.
| Month | Wind at 30 m | Output | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 5.79 m/s | 1,544 kWh | $259 |
| February | 5.91 m/s | 1,461 kWh | $245 |
| March | 6.15 m/s | 1,769 kWh | $297 |
| April | 6.56 m/s | 1,963 kWh | $330 |
| May | 5.71 m/s | 1,494 kWh | $251 |
| June | 5.47 m/s | 1,301 kWh | $219 |
| July | 4.81 m/s | 957 kWh | $161 |
| August | 4.84 m/s | 977 kWh | $164 |
| September | 5.34 m/s | 1,222 kWh | $205 |
| October | 5.77 m/s | 1,527 kWh | $257 |
| November | 5.87 m/s | 1,538 kWh | $258 |
| December | 5.81 m/s | 1,555 kWh | $261 |
What a taller tower would buy
Measured at 10 m the wind in Lincoln County averages 4.47 m/s; at 50 m it is 6.33 m/s. That gives a shear exponent of 0.216, typical of ordinary open country. Going from 20 m to 50 m takes output from 13,860 to 22,151 kWh a year, 60% more, before counting the extra cost of the taller tower. Why tower height decides it explains the shear behind these numbers.
| Hub height | Average wind | Output | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 m | 5.19 m/s | 13,860 kWh | 43 years |
| 30 m | 5.67 m/s | 17,263 kWh | 35 years |
| 40 m | 6.03 m/s | 19,942 kWh | 30 years |
| 50 m | 6.33 m/s | 22,151 kWh | 27 years |
Counties around Lincoln County
3 of the 6 closest counties are windier at turbine height; the windiest, Kit Carson County, averages 6.18 m/s.
- Elbert County, CO: 5.42 m/s, 15,462 kWh, payback 39 years (39 mi)
- Crowley County, CO: 5.2 m/s, 13,907 kWh, payback 43 years (50 mi)
- Cheyenne County, CO: 6.14 m/s, 20,742 kWh, payback 29 years (50 mi)
- Kit Carson County, CO: 6.18 m/s, 21,039 kWh, payback 28 years (53 mi)
- El Paso County, CO: 5.4 m/s, 15,319 kWh, payback 39 years (56 mi)
- Kiowa County, CO: 5.95 m/s, 19,334 kWh, payback 31 years (58 mi)
Sun versus wind in Lincoln County
Lincoln County gets 5.09 kWh of sunshine per square metre a day on average. One kW of solar panels here would make roughly 1,486 kWh a year; one kW of the turbine above makes 1,727. This is one of the rare places where a kilowatt of turbine out-produces a kilowatt of panels, by 1.2 times. Panel output assumes an 80% system performance ratio. Wind or solar runs the same comparison for every county.
How this is worked out
Wind is NASA's Power climate record, the 2001-2025 average at 10 m and 50 m for the county's centre, carried to 30 m with this county's own measured wind shear and spread into hours with a Rayleigh distribution. The turbine is a generic 10 kW, 7 m rotor machine with 10% losses. Cost is $10,000 per kW installed with no tax credit, because the federal one ended in 2025. One county-centre number cannot see your hilltop or your tree line, so treat it as the starting point for a site survey, not a substitute. The full method and its weak spots are in how the numbers are made.