Wind Turbine Payback in Lincoln County, NM
Wind turbine payback in Lincoln County
No. The turbine wears out before it pays for itself.
At 30 m, the height a home turbine tower usually reaches, the wind in Lincoln County, NM averages 5.12 m/s (11.5 mph). A 10 kW turbine there would make about 13,353 kWh a year, worth $2,048 at NM's 15.34¢/kWh. Against an installed cost of about $100,000, that is a payback of 49 years, and the turbine is built to last about 20.
What to do in Lincoln County
A home turbine is not worth buying for savings in Lincoln County unless your spot is far windier than the county average, 7.8 m/s at the hub against 5.12 m/s here. Per kW, solar panels would make about 1,626 kWh a year here against the turbine's 1,335, so get a solar quote first.
What would have to change
- Power would have to cost 37¢/kWh, 2.4 times what NM pays now.
- Or the average wind at the hub would have to be 7.8 m/s instead of 5.12. A taller tower or an exposed ridge can add some of that; a rooftop never will.
Against the rest of NM
Lincoln County is the 1,403rd windiest of 3,144 US counties at turbine height; the national middle is 4.79 m/s. The windiest in NM is Union County at 6.75 m/s, payback 26 years.
Month by month in Lincoln County
April is the strongest month here, at 6.51 m/s and about 1,932 kWh. August is the weakest, 3.50 m/s and 366 kWh, so the best month makes 5.3 times the worst. November to March brings in 51% of the year's output in Lincoln County.
| Month | Wind at 30 m | Output | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 5.43 m/s | 1,322 kWh | $203 |
| February | 5.96 m/s | 1,487 kWh | $228 |
| March | 6.00 m/s | 1,674 kWh | $257 |
| April | 6.51 m/s | 1,932 kWh | $296 |
| May | 5.69 m/s | 1,480 kWh | $227 |
| June | 4.81 m/s | 929 kWh | $143 |
| July | 3.66 m/s | 425 kWh | $65 |
| August | 3.50 m/s | 366 kWh | $56 |
| September | 4.17 m/s | 613 kWh | $94 |
| October | 4.93 m/s | 1,025 kWh | $157 |
| November | 5.36 m/s | 1,238 kWh | $190 |
| December | 5.53 m/s | 1,381 kWh | $212 |
What a taller tower would buy
Measured at 10 m the wind in Lincoln County averages 3.94 m/s; at 50 m it is 5.79 m/s. That gives a shear exponent of 0.239, typical of ordinary open country. Going from 20 m to 50 m takes output from 10,265 to 18,153 kWh a year, 77% more, before counting the extra cost of the taller tower. Why tower height decides it explains the shear behind these numbers.
| Hub height | Average wind | Output | Payback |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 m | 4.65 m/s | 10,265 kWh | 64 years |
| 30 m | 5.12 m/s | 13,384 kWh | 49 years |
| 40 m | 5.49 m/s | 15,960 kWh | 41 years |
| 50 m | 5.79 m/s | 18,153 kWh | 36 years |
Counties around Lincoln County
5 of the 6 closest counties are windier at turbine height; the windiest, Torrance County, averages 6.4 m/s.
- Torrance County, NM: 6.4 m/s, 22,669 kWh, payback 29 years (62 mi)
- Chaves County, NM: 5.42 m/s, 15,462 kWh, payback 42 years (62 mi)
- De Baca County, NM: 6.1 m/s, 20,446 kWh, payback 32 years (75 mi)
- Otero County, NM: 5.15 m/s, 13,560 kWh, payback 48 years (80 mi)
- Guadalupe County, NM: 6.34 m/s, 22,225 kWh, payback 29 years (87 mi)
- Socorro County, NM: 5.09 m/s, 13,146 kWh, payback 50 years (87 mi)
Sun versus wind in Lincoln County
Lincoln County gets 5.57 kWh of sunshine per square metre a day on average. One kW of solar panels here would make roughly 1,626 kWh a year; one kW of the turbine above makes 1,335. Kilowatt for kilowatt, panels make 1.2 times as much here as the turbine. Panel output assumes an 80% system performance ratio. Wind or solar runs the same comparison for every county.
How this is worked out
Wind is NASA's Power climate record, the 2001-2025 average at 10 m and 50 m for the county's centre, carried to 30 m with this county's own measured wind shear and spread into hours with a Rayleigh distribution. The turbine is a generic 10 kW, 7 m rotor machine with 10% losses. Cost is $10,000 per kW installed with no tax credit, because the federal one ended in 2025. One county-centre number cannot see your hilltop or your tree line, so treat it as the starting point for a site survey, not a substitute. The full method and its weak spots are in how the numbers are made.